Now that Democrats are certain to retain control of the U.S. Senate for the next two year, the Georgia runoff on December 6 between incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker is not going to be the titanic struggle for control of the chamber that it might have been had Nevada flipped red.
I now rate the Georgia runoff Likely Democratic for several reasons.
- I have no doubt that a significant number of Republican voters understand that Walker shouldn’t be let within a country mile of the United States Senate, but held their noses and voted for him anyway in order to get their party control of the chamber. That motivation is no longer there, because Democrats have clinched control of the Senate. I expect some portion of these voters to stay home, with a handful perhaps even voting for Warnock.
- A Libertarian candidate dropped out and endorsed Warnock, but not in time to get his name off the ballot. He ended up pulling about 2% of the vote. Probably many or most of these voters won’t even vote, but of those who do, I expect many will heed their candidate’s endorsement and vote for Warnock.
- Democrats, unlike Republicans, still have good reasons to show up. So much of what Democratic rank-and-file voters wanted done the last two years was flummoxed by Senators Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Arizona) having outsized power in a 50-50 Senate. If Democrats get to 51 seats, they only have to hold one of those two fickle votes, and Manchin has been much more willing to play ball with his Democratic counterparts, and cut deals, than Sinema has.
While Georgia is still a closely divided state, under the circumstances, I expect Warnock not just to win, but possibly to win by perhaps four or five points.