Now that Democrats are certain to retain control of the U.S. Senate for the next two year, the Georgia runoff on December 6 between incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker is not going to be the titanic struggle for control of the chamber that it might have been had Nevada flipped red.
I now rate the Georgia runoff Likely Democratic for several reasons.
I have no doubt that a significant number of Republican voters understand that Walker shouldn’t be let within a country mile of the United States Senate, but held their noses and voted for him anyway in order to get their party control of the chamber. That motivation is no longer there, because Democrats have clinched control of the Senate. I expect some portion of these voters to stay home, with a handful perhaps even voting for Warnock.
A Libertarian candidate dropped out and endorsed Warnock, but not in time to get his name off the ballot. He ended up pulling about 2% of the vote. Probably many or most of these voters won’t even vote, but of those who do, I expect many will heed their candidate’s endorsement and vote for Warnock.
Democrats, unlike Republicans, still have good reasons to show up. So much of what Democratic rank-and-file voters wanted done the last two years was flummoxed by Senators Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Arizona) having outsized power in a 50-50 Senate. If Democrats get to 51 seats, they only have to hold one of those two fickle votes, and Manchin has been much more willing to play ball with his Democratic counterparts, and cut deals, than Sinema has.
While Georgia is still a closely divided state, under the circumstances, I expect Warnock not just to win, but possibly to win by perhaps four or five points.
As of Sunday morning, the New York Times elections site—which is possibly the best one available—shows 21 U.S. House seats still uncalled, although one of them is a Democrat-vs.-Democrat race in California, so that seat is automatically a Democratic hold. Among the 20 other races, Democrats would need to win 14 to hold the majority, while Republicans only need seven. Here I’m going to analyze how those 20 seats break down, from east to west.
Maine 2—Democrat Jared Golden leads Republican Bruce Poliquin by 3% before ranked-choice voting kicks in. Golden’s in good shape. LIKELY D.
New York 22—Republican Brandon Williams leads by about 2% in a Republican-leaning district. LIKELY R.
Colorado 3—Republican Lauren Boebert holds a narrow lead, but most signs indicate that she will squeak this one out. LEANS R.
Colorado 8—It is a bit surprising that this race has not been called for Democrat Yadira Caraveo, whose Republican opponent, Barbara Kirkmeyer, conceded days ago. The margin is only 0.7% right now, but one tends to think that the person who conceded had a good reason to do it. LIKELY D.
Arizona 1—Democrat Jevin Hodge leads incumbent Republican David Schweikert by 0.8%, but there are a lot of votes (14%) still to be counted. It is a close district, so it is hard to say who will prevail here. My guess is that Schweikert ekes it out. LEANS R.
Arizona 6—Republican Juan Ciscomani leads Democrat Kirsten Engel by 0.4% with 13% of the vote still out. I expect Ciscomani hangs on. LEANS R.
Oregon 5—With Republican Lori Chavez-De Remer leading Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner by 2. It’s clear that a bitter Democratic primary, in which McLeod-Skinner ousted incumbent Kurt Schrader, left a mark. My guess is that the Republican holds on. Democrats should take a lesson from what happens when you primary a centrist Democrat in a centrist district. LEANS R.
Oregon 6—Democrat Andrea Salinas leads Republican Mike Erickson by 2%. It’s a slightly blue-leaning district, so I expect Salinas wins. LIKELY D.
California 3—Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley leads Democratic challenger Kermit Jones by about 6%. Late counts in California typically favor Democrats, but Jones probably has too far to go to get there. LEANS R.
California 6—I don’t know why this one hasn’t been called yet. Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera has a 12% lead over Republican Tamika Hamilton, in a Democratic-leaning district. LIKELY D.
California 9—Another race that probably should have been called by now. Democratic incumbent Josh Harder leads by 12% over Republican Tom Patti. LIKELY D.
California 13—Republican John Duarte has a 0.2% lead over Democrat Adam Gray in this open seat. The late count, I expect, will likely favor Gray. LEANS D.
California 21—Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa leads Republican Michael Maher by 10%. LIKELY D.
California 22—Republican incumbent David Valadao has a 6% lead over Democrat Rudy Salas. This is a heavily Democratic district, but Valadao’s personal brand has helped him overcome his district’s partisan lean many times. The margin will tighten, but I expect Valadao will hold on. LEANS R.
California 27—Republican incumbent Mike Garcia holds a 10% lead over Democrat Christy Smith in this Democratic-leaning district. The margin will tighten, but it’s hard to imagine Garcia losing a 10-point lead. It’s beginning to look like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was right to pull the plug on this race. LEANS R.
California 41—Longtime Republican incumbent Ken Calvert leads Democrat Will Rollins by about a point and a half. This one could be pretty tight up to the end. It’s one of California’s more Republican districts, but that’s not saying much. With the late count usually favoring Democrats, I think Rollins pulls it out. LEANS D.
California 45—Incumbent Republican Michelle Steel leads Democrat Jay Chen by 8%. She probably holds on. LEANS R.
California 47—Incumbent Democrat Katie Porter’s district got a lot more Republican this cycle, but she leads her GOP opponent, Scott Baugh, by 2%, and I expect she holds on. LEANS D.
California 49—Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin leads Republican Bryan Maryott by 4% and should win. LIKELY D.
Alaska At-Large—Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola is in great shape, with 47% of the vote before ranked choice takes effect, and some number of Republicans certain to have named her as their second choice. LIKELY D.
In all, of the 20 uncalled races, I expect Democrats to win 11 and Republicans to win nine. That would give Republicans a scant 220-215 majority with a net gain of seven seats. As compared to the average loss for a president’s party in a midterm election (34-35 seats), this is clearly a major underperformance by the Republican Party, and it puts Democrats in a strong position to retake the House in 2024 if President Biden does well in his reelection campaign.
That said, if just three of those expected Republican seats end up going Democratic (and at least two of them are pretty dicey calls at this point), then Democrats would hold the House—a remarkable result if it happens.
I learned in 2010 never to bet against Nevada political guru Jon Ralston when it came to picking winners in Nevada. Ralston’s calculations show that embattled Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is likely to hold off a challenge by Republican Adam Laxalt. As such, I am changing my rating in that race from Leans R (flip) to Leans D.
The ratings change, if my projections are correct, would indicate Democrats will hold the Senate by taking a 50-49 advantage into any runoff that might happen in Georgia. A 50-50 tie would keep Democrats in charge due to the tie breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris.
I still project a 23-seat pickup in the House by the GOP, for a 236-199 advantage.
Heading into the final two days before the 2022 midterm elections, it is clear to me that the Republican Party has the momentum and this will essentially be a normal midterm, with one caveat: It appears that Democratic turnout will be higher than could normally be expected in a midterm with a Democratic president, which will blunt Republican gains somewhat and possibly enable them to preserve their tenuous 50-50 hold on the U.S. Senate.
But even though Republicans appear unlikely to get the 34 or 35 seats the “out” party could expect to pick up in an average midterm election, I still expect almost every U.S. House seat Joe Biden won by less than 8% in 2020 to flip to the GOP. As such, I expect Republicans to pick up 23 U.S. House seats and take the majority by a 236-199 margin.
I didn’t just pick this number out of a hat, and when I made my first projections in the spring, it was higher. At that time, I expected Republicans to flip virtually every district Biden won by less than 12%, which I based on Democratic underperformance, relative to 2017, in the governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey last year.
After the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, I noted that Democratic over performance in special elections from that point was significant enough that I changed my projection to Democrats losing virtually every Biden +3 seat. But with momentum clearly turning back to the Republicans in the last month or two, I expect to end up somewhere in the middle between those two extremes. With a couple of exceptions, I am projecting Republicans to win any Biden House seat of +8 or less. I expect with close to 100% certainty that Republicans will control a majority of the House in January 2023.
The Senate, I feel less confident about. On one hand, Republicans have hurt themselves badly by picking a number of really bad candidates. On the other hand, the only five Senate races that appear to be in doubt at this point are four seats currently held by Democrats and only one seat currently held by a Republican. Democrats would need to win four of those five seats just to stay at 50-50. In a year in which I expect Republicans to gain, it is hard to imagine that Republicans would win only one of these five super-competitive seats. Had the GOP chosen better candidates in Pennsylvania, Georgia and New Hampshire, I’d be projecting the GOP to pick up at least two seats and most likely three. And those dynamics might still hold, possibly propelling two or three of those really awful Republican candidates into the Senate. Right now, I’m calling it 50-49 GOP with Georgia going to a runoff, but it’s far likelier that it might be 51 or 52 seats for the Republicans than it is that Democrats will do any better than 50-50. In short, the dynamics tell me to expect the Republicans to get 51 Senate seats, but it’s just hard for me to see where they get that 51st seat.
On average, my projections since 2006 have been within seven seats in the House and 1.375 seats in the Senate. Based on my historical error rate, one could expect a Republican House majority of anywhere from 229-206 to 243-192, and a Senate that contains anything from a 52-48 Democratic edge to a 52-48 Republican edge.
I also make projections at the state level, and those are all available in the attached chart.
Recent Comments