Election Analysis

Election Projections: October 18, 2014

by Cliston Brown | Oct 18, 2014 | Election Analysis

After a major scrub of my rankings last week, I have very few ratings changes this week, but there are a number of races that bear watching. For my complete, updated list of close House, Senate and governor races, click here.

The Situation in the U.S. House of Representatives

Republicans +5
GOP 239, Democrats 196

With 17 days left before the election, I will admit that I think my expectation of five Republican pickups in the House seems very low, but as I go through race by race, that’s the number I get. That said, if Republicans do really well on Election Day, or Democrats do really poorly, it wouldn’t be impossible for Republicans to exceed my expectations significantly. There are perhaps as many as 15 seats I currently list “Leans Democratic” that could, in a wave, flip to the Republicans, which would represent a substantial, 20-seat pickup and a huge House majority for the GOP. But at this moment, looking at all the closest races, I am only seeing a five-seat GOP gain.

Part of what is going on here is the fact that gerrymandering of Congressional districts after 2010 largely maxed out the Republicans in the House—there just isn’t that much room for the GOP to gain seats. For them to pick up 15-20 seats would require almost every close race to go their way, which can happen in a “wave” election. Given voters’ unhappiness with both parties, it is hard to see a wave developing. But again, I am going to be watching closely over the next two weeks to see if any of those marginal Democratic seats I referenced above are showing any signs of movement.

I will say this: the five-seat gain I currently see for Republicans is a floor, not a ceiling, and if this is the ultimate result, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee deserves a big pat on the back for limiting its losses.

I have only three race rating changes this week in the House:

Nebraska 2^nd District: Leans Republican to Leans Democratic; Remains on Watch List

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) went up last week in this Omaha-based district with an ad reminiscent of the infamous Willie Horton ad run by the George H.W. Bush campaign in 1988. The ad showed pictures of a black convicted felon and tried to tie his early release—and subsequent violent actions—to Democratic candidate Brad Ashford. Given the controversy this ad was sure to generate, one assumes that this is a “Hail Mary,” and a Roll Call article on the ad reports that both Democratic and Republican polling shows incumbent Republican Lee Terry trailing. Terry has always struggled in this district, and it appears clear that he is now in serious danger of being unseated.

New York 24^th District: Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic

Recent polling shows Republican John Katko cutting into the margin enjoyed by incumbent Democrat Dan Maffei. This one may end up being close, but Maffei still appears to have the edge.

Wisconsin 6^th District: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic; Removed from Ratings List

The only reason I kept this race on the board last week was because I simply could not find any polling data, but the fact is that this is a Republican district. Mitt Romney carried it by 7 points in 2012. There is no point in keeping this one on the list.

The Situation in the U.S. Senate

Republicans +6
GOP 51, Democrats 47, Independents 2

While I have no ratings changes this week, I am looking closely at the situation in Kansas, where the early lead for independent candidate Greg Orman over Republican Senator Pat Roberts appears to have largely evaporated. If this trend continues, Roberts is likely to hold on.

Also, I am closely watching both Iowa and Colorado. In Iowa, embattled Democratic candidate Bruce Braley appears to be making a move in the polling against his Republican opponent, Joni Ernst. In Colorado, Republican challenger Cory Gardner continues to maintain and grow his small polling lead against incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall, but I am keeping this race at “Leans Democratic” due to the recent history of Democrats significantly outperforming their polling in Colorado. If the trend continues and Gardner increases his average lead to more than 3 or 4 points, it is going to be difficult not to reconsider.

And South Dakota remains interesting due to the continuing failure of Republican candidate Mike Rounds to put the race away. A Republican poll out last week had him leading his Democratic opponent, Rick Weiland, by only 4 points. When a Republican poll shows a Democrat surging, it is worth taking notice.

In Georgia, Democrat Michelle Nunn continues to surge against Republican David Perdue, even taking a 1-point lead in one poll last week. However, given the presence of a third-party candidate in the race, the likelihood that Nunn will get more than 50 percent is low, and if the race does go to a runoff, the Republicans are likely to have the advantage.

At this point, all other Senate races look stable.

The Situation in the Statehouses

Democrats +3/Republicans -4
Republicans 25, Democrats 24, Independents 1

While I have only one ratings change this week, I am closely watching the tightening races in Kansas, Massachusetts and Wisconsin. These three are very tight and appear very hard to call right now.

Arkansas: Leans Republican to Likely Republican

In Arkansas, Republican Asa Hutchinson is widening his lead against Democrat Mike Ross. His average lead is now six points, so it appears very unlikely at this point that Ross will prevail.

Narrowing the Field: Election Projections, Oct. 11, 2014

by Cliston Brown | Oct 11, 2014 | Election Analysis

With barely more than three weeks left before the midterm elections, I have done a thorough review of every race on my Ratings List, which you can access by clicking here.

I have removed any races from the list that I now consider to be safe wins for either party and revised a number of other ratings. My revised list has been narrowed down to 56 U.S. House races, 12 U.S. Senate races, and 16 governors’ races. I consider all other races to be safe for one party or the other.

The Skinny: U.S. House
Republicans 240, Democrats 195 (GOP +6)
As of this moment, I am seeing slight movement in the Democrats’ direction in the U.S. House, and I am now projecting a Republican pickup of only six seats, as compared with eight last week, for a 240-195 GOP majority.

The Skinny: U.S. Senate
Republicans 51, Democrats 47, Independents 2 (GOP +6)
The seat projections remain unchanged in the Senate, where I see the Republicans making a net gain of six seats. This would give them a bare majority of 51 seats, with Democrats holding 47 (including Bernie Sanders, an independent who reliably caucuses with Democrats), and independents having two seats.

The Skinny: Governors
Republicans 25, Democrats 24, Independent 1 (Democrats +3, GOP -4)
I also am seeing movement in the Democrats’ direction in the governors’ races and am now projecting a net gain of three seats for the Democrats, as well as a pickup by an independent candidate in Alaska, for a net Republican loss of four seats. This would give the Republicans 25 governors’ mansions to 24 for the Democrats and one independent.

Upcoming Final Projections
I will make my final projections in three weeks, on November 1, three days prior to the elections. In 2012, I came within one seat of the final margin in the House and one seat of the final margin in the Senate. I have never offered governors’ race projections before.

Governor Rating Changes

Alaska: Leans Republican to Leans Independent; Added to Watch List

Republican Gov. Sean Parnell has only led in one poll in the last three weeks. Independent candidate Bill Walker, boosted when the Democratic candidate dropped out and joined his ticket as the lieutenant governor candidate, clearly has the lead at this point. Can he hold it? Time will tell.

Florida: Leans Republican to Leans Democratic

Former Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, now a Democrat, seems to have the polling mojo headed his direction, as he has led four of the last six public surveys. If the closeness of the race boosts turnout, Crist is likely to prevail. The lower the turnout, the better chance that embattled GOP Gov. Rick Scott hangs on.

Kansas: Added to Watch List

Republican Gov. Sam Brownback, thought to be dead in the water, has made a move in some recent polls. While he still trails, it is very close, and Democrat Paul Davis must never consider himself safe in a state as Republican as Kansas.

Maine: Added to Watch List

If Maine were a two-way race, Democratic challenger Mike Michaud would be cruising to victory over Republican Gov. Paul LePage. But the presence of a strong independent candidate, Eliot Cutler, has kept this race in doubt, and LePage appears to be dead even at this point. Unless Cutler begins to fade, LePage has a chance to prevail—with less than 40 percent of the vote—in a very tight three-way race.

Maryland: Safe Democratic; Removed from Ratings

Democratic candidate Anthony Brown leads Republican Larry Hogan by an average of 13 points. Even in an open-seat race, Hogan never really had a chance in this heavily Democratic state.

Minnesota: Safe Democratic; Removed from Ratings

Gov. Mark Dayton is coasting to reelection by an average of more than 10 points over Republican challenger Jeff Johnson.

Nebraska: Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

Republican candidate Pete Ricketts has led the last two public polls over Democrat Chuck Hassebrook by 20 points.

New Hampshire: Safe Democratic; Removed from Ratings

Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan averages a 10-point lead over Republican Walt Havenstein, who has not led in a single reputable public poll.

Ohio: Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

Ohio Democrats are now worried that the epic collapse of gubernatorial candidate Ed FitzGerald, who trails Republican Gov. John Kasich by an average of more than 20 points, will take down the entire Democratic ticket statewide.

Oregon: Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic

The bizarre revelation that Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber’s fiancée once married an immigrant for $5,000 so he could get his green card probably won’t take him down in his reelection race against Republican Dennis Richardson. Kitzhaber leads, on average, by just a hair under 10 points. But I’m going to keep an eye on this one, because you just never know what kind of foolishness the public is going to decide is important.

Pennsylvania: Safe Democratic; Removed from Ratings

Democratic challenger Tom Wolf is averaging a 15-point lead over the nation’s most unpopular governor, Republican Tom Corbett. This one’s over.

Rhode Island: Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic

Recent polling shows Democratic candidate Gina Raimondo only leading Republican Allan Fung by an average of four points.

South Carolina: Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

Republican Gov. Nikki Haley leads all polling against Democratic challenger Vincent Sheheen by an average of more than 13 points.

Texas: Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

The uproar over an ad released by Democratic candidate Wendy Davis against Republican candidate Greg Abbott might hurt her numbers, but the results of this race have never been in any serious doubt. Abbott’s average lead is more than 11 points.

Senate Rating Changes

Minnesota: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic; Removed from Ratings

Republican challenger Mike McFadden hasn’t led in a single public poll, and Democratic Sen. Al Franken’s average lead is 11.5 points. There is no point in continuing to track this race.

Mississippi: Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

Any hopes Democrat Travis Childers had of winning here hinged on longtime Republican incumbent Thad Cochran losing his primary. Last week, the Biloxi Sun-Herald reported that Childers was gaining on Cochran, but Cochran still led that poll by 11 points.

Montana: Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

Things were tough enough for the Democrats here when former Gov. Brian Schweitzer elected not to run for this open seat. They got tougher when their appointed Senator, John Walsh, had to drop out when it was uncovered he had committed plagiarism while pursuing a degree at the Army War College. A young state legislator, Amanda Curtis, stepped up to fill the Democratic ballot spot, but she has no chance against Republican Steve Daines, whose average lead is more than 20 points.

Oregon: Safe Democratic; Removed from Ratings

Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley averages more than a 13-point lead against Republican challenger Monica Wehby, who has been accused of stalking and plagiarism. It is a wonder the race is as close as it is.

South Dakota: Safe Republican to Leans Republican; Added to Watch List

The race in South Dakota has recently been turned on its head, as Republican candidate Mike Rounds has watched his lead shrink to single digits over Democrat Rick Weiland and former Republican Sen. Larry Pressler, who is running as an independent. Possibly smelling blood, the national Democrats just pumped $1 million in advertising into the race, which is a major investment in this rural, low-population state.

Virginia: Safe Democratic; Removed from Ratings

Democratic Sen. Mark Warner is the most popular politician in Virginia. Republican contender Ed Gillespie has mounted the best challenge anyone could have, but he trails, on average, by about 11 points. He never had a chance.

West Virginia: Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

Although Democrat Natalie Tennant, the Secretary of State, is clearly a promising young politician and may yet have a future, the future isn’t here for her yet. GOP Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito averages a 17-point lead in this open-seat race. This one’s over and has never really been in doubt.

House Rating Changes

With a lack of reliable public polling in many House races, these contests require an observer to look for other clues as to what may be going on. That is why I am going to make a large number of House race ratings changes this week, despite not having much reliable polling information.

Arizona 2^nd District: Leans Republican to Leans Democratic; Added to Watch List

The only polling result I can find was a Democratic poll showing incumbent Ron Barber leading Republican Martha McSally, who barely missed defeating Barber in 2012. I tend to take partisan polls with a grain of salt, and I have consistently rated this race “Leans Republican.” However, given the margin in this poll (eight points), I am now moving it to “Leans Democratic” and placing it on the Watch List.

Arizona 9^th District: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic; Removed from Watch List

I have consistently rated the race between first-term Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema (D) and her Republican opponent, Wendy Rogers, “Leans Democratic.” I based this ranking on the fact that Sinema won an extremely close race in 2012 and the high likelihood that Democratic turnout will drop more in this year’s midterm elections than Republican turnout will. However, I recently read that Rogers had run what can only be described as a desperate ad, somehow linking ISIS beheadings to Sinema. Such a gambit tells me that Rogers is behind and believes she needs a Hail Mary to get back in the game. As a result, I am moving this district to “Likely Democratic” and moving it off the Watch List.

Arkansas 2^nd District: Added to Watch List

In Arkansas’ 2^nd District, the state’s best district for Democrats and an open seat, two polls show a mixed bag between Republican French Hill and Democrat Pat Hays. I expect that Hill is probably ahead slightly, so I am keeping it at “Leans Republican” for now, but I am moving it to the Watch List.

Arkansas 4^th District: Likely Republican to Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

In Arkansas’ 4^th District, I thought that former FEMA director James Lee Witt, a Democrat, might be able to make a competitive race against Republican Bruce Westerman in an open seat. The only polling I am seeing shows him down by double digits. At this point, I do not see any evidence that this race is going to be competitive, so I am moving it off my ratings list entirely.

California 3^rd District: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic; Removed from Ratings

In California’s 3^rd District, I had seen some information a few weeks ago that made it appear Democratic incumbent John Garamendi might have a tough race. But the last internal poll conducted for Republican candidate Dan Logue showed Garamendi up by six points. If a Republican poll shows a Democrat ahead by six points, the real margin is probably double digits. I am moving this race off my ratings list.

California 7^th District: Leans Democratic to Leans Republican; Remains on Watch List

Last week, the Democrats pulled nearly $3 million from Virginia’s 10^th District and sent $2 million from that race to first-term Congressman Ami Bera. This cannot be a good sign for Bera, who led former GOP Congressman Doug Ose by just four points in a mid-September Democratic poll. It is also worth noting that in the June “jungle primary,” Bera managed less than 47 percent of the vote against three Republicans, a Libertarian and an independent. If the Democrats can turn out their vote, Bera may yet prevail, but the shifting of that kind of money tells me that they smell trouble. I am moving this race from “Leans Democratic” to “Leans Republican” and keeping it on the Watch List.

California 10^th District: Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

Although Republican Congressman Jeff Denham had a relatively close race in 2012, winning by slightly more than 5 percent, nothing indicates he is in for another tussle this year against Democrat Michael Eggman. National Democrats pulled their advertising here last week. Although this is not a ratings change, I am now moving it, and all other races rated “Safe,” off the board.

California 21^st District: Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

I was surprised to see a number of other leading analysts thought this race might be competitive, even though Republican David Valadao won it by 15 points in 2012. National Democrats recently pulled their advertising here on behalf of Democrat Amanda Renteria. The only public poll I can find showed Valadao with a 19-point lead, and he won 63 percent of the vote in the June “jungle primary,” so I see no evidence that this race is in doubt in any way. I am taking it off the board.

California 36^th District: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic

Democrats are not advertising here, which is a sign that they do not expect first-term incumbent Raul Ruiz is in danger against Republican Brian Nestande. Unlike several other California Democrats thought to be vulnerable, Ruiz topped 50 percent in the June “jungle primary,” and it is likely he will improve his position in a general election with higher turnout.

California 52^nd District: Leans Republican to Leans Democratic; Added to Watch List

Republicans have been very high on their candidate, Carl DeMaio, a moderate on social issues who is also gay. Given the fact that first-term incumbent Scott Peters pulled less than 43 percent in the June “jungle primary,” and my expectation that DeMaio’s positioning on social issues would benefit him, I have long considered him the favorite. But recent polling has given a slight edge to Peters, and surprisingly, the Chamber of Commerce endorsed the Democrat. Coupled with news on Friday that DeMaio has been accused of sexual harassment by a former aide, and that his story bears similarities to previous accusations against DeMaio, I am now moving this rating into the Democratic column. However, given Peters’ poor performance in June, I am keeping this race on the Watch List.

Colorado 6^th District: Removed from Watch List

The Democrats this week redirected funding from their candidate, Andrew Romanoff, and news stories indicate that incumbent Republican Mike Coffman holds consistent polling leads. Romanoff has raised a great deal of money on his own, and he is reputedly an excellent candidate, so I am keeping the race at “Leans Republican,” but I am taking it off of the Watch List.

Illinois 10^th District: Leans Republican to Leans Democratic; Added to Watch List

I have consistently favored former GOP Congressman Bob Dold to reclaim this seat in the tony north shore exurbs of Chicago, which has a strong Democratic lean in presidential elections, but also usually elects moderate Republicans to Congress. Congressman Brad Schneider (D) broke that streak in narrowly defeating Dold in 2012. My assumptions have been that in a year with significantly lower turnout, and with Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn struggling, Democrats would be at a disadvantage in this race. However, recent polling indicates that Quinn’s fortunes have improved, and a We Ask America poll, typically a Republican leaner, showed Schneider up by two points. I now give the edge to Schneider, but there is enough doubt that I am adding this race to the Watch List.

Illinois 13^th District: Leans Republican to Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

A Republican poll showing incumbent Rodney Davis with a 19-point lead last month, coupled with the recent announcement that Democrats are canceling some ads on behalf of challenger Ann Callis, make it clear that this one is all but over. I am taking this race off the Ratings List entirely.

Iowa 1^st District: Added to Watch List

A poll last week showed Republican Rod Blum with a 1-point lead over Democrat Pat Murphy for an open seat in northeastern Iowa. I still think the fundamentals of the district favor the Democrat, but I am placing this race on the Watch List.

Iowa 4^th District: Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

Every election, Democrats always hope that this year will be the year they’ll take down the notorious Republican incumbent, Steve King. But this is Iowa’s safest district for Republicans, and the national Democrats recently pulled the funding plug on Democratic candidate Jim Mowrer. This one comes off the Rating List.

Michigan 1^st District: Leans Republican to Likely Republican

Democrats recently cut back on advertising in this district and three other Michigan districts where their prospects appear to be dimming. Incumbent Dan Benishek barely held off a Democratic challenge in 2012, but he appears to have the advantage over Democrat Jerry Cannon this year.

Michigan 7^th District: Likely Republican to Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

National Democrats have pulled funding for Pam Byrnes in her race against incumbent Republican Tim Walberg.

Michigan 8^th District: Likely Republican to Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

National Democrats also have pulled funding for Eric Schertzing in his open-seat race against Republican Mike Bishop. This seat was always a longshot.

Michigan 11^th District: Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

As in the other Michigan districts, the national Democrats have pulled the plug on Bobby McKenzie’s open-seat race against Republican David Trott.

Minnesota 2^nd District: Likely Republican to Leans Republican

Comedian and talk show host Bill Maher named incumbent Republican Rep. John Kline as the target of his “Flip A District” campaign, bringing funding and publicity to his Democratic challenger, Mike Obermueller. At least one poll has shown Obermueller ahead. I doubt its accuracy, but I am moving the rating one step in the Democratic direction. Stay tuned.

Minnesota 7^th District: Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic

A new poll this week from a nonpartisan pollster shows incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson with a 9-point lead over Republican Torrey Westrom. I am moving this race to Likely Democratic.

New Jersey 2^nd District: Safe Republican to Likely Republican

An independent poll last week showed Republican incumbent Frank LoBiondo only leading Democrat Bill Hughes by six points. It’s still not close enough to move into the “lean” category, but certainly close enough to downgrade from “safe.”

New York 4^th District: Safe Democratic; Removed from Ratings

The most recent credible poll shows Democrat Kathleen Rice with an 18-point lead over Republican Bruce Blakeman in this open-seat race. This was always a longshot for the GOP.

New York 18^th District: Removed from Watch List

The most recent polling I could find here, including a Republican poll in late September, show Democratic incumbent Sean Maloney leading this rematch against former Republican Congresswoman Nan Hayworth by 6-8 points. I am keeping this at “Leans Democratic” due to the fact that Democrats are boosting advertising for Maloney, so they must be seeing some vulnerability that these most recent polls are not indicating.

New York 19^th District: Likely Republican to Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

The most recent poll I could find here showed Republican incumbent Chris Gibson pulling away to a 24-point lead over Democrat Sean Eldridge.

New York 23^rd District: Likely Republican to Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

Things haven’t looked promising here at any time for Democrat Martha Robertson in her race to unseat incumbent Republican Tom Reed, and the national Democrats just pulled their advertising.

Ohio 6^th and 14^th Districts: Likely Republican to Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

At this point, there is no reason to expect Democrats Jennifer Garrison or Michael Wager to prevail in the 6^th and 14^th districts, respectively, against incumbent Republicans Bill Johnson and David Joyce.

Oregon 5^th District: Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic; Removed from Ratings

There is no evidence that Republican Tootie Smith will unseat incumbent Democrat Kurt Schrader, who has won the endorsement of the Farm Bureau, not exactly the most Democratic-friendly organization. One expects the endorsement would go in a different direction if there were much chance the Republicans would prevail here.

Pennsylvania 6^th and 8^th Districts: Likely Republican to Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

Democrats always feel as if they are close to winning these suburban districts outside Philadelphia, but they are usually disappointed. The national Democrats just pulled their advertising in both districts. Republican Ryan Costello is clearly favored to defeat Democrat Manan Travedi in the open-seat 6^th District race, and incumbent GOP Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick appears headed for another term against Democrat Kevin Strouse.

Utah 4^th District: Safe Republican to Likely Republican

Your perception of this race depends on which partisan pollster you choose to listen to. A Democratic poll last week showed Democrat Doug Owens within three points of Republican Mia Love in this open-seat race. A Republican internal poll showed Love with a 47-28 lead, but she is under 50 percent and there is an unusual number of undecided voters. I suspect this race is closer to three points than it is to 19 points, but how close? The small degree of uncertainty here causes me to keep this race on the board and downgrade it to “Likely Republican,” but make no mistake, Love is still a heavy favorite to win.

Virginia 2^nd District: Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

There doesn’t seem to be any discernible evidence that Democrat Suzanne Patrick is going to oust incumbent Republican Scott Rigell. I am taking this one off the board.

Virginia 10^th District: Likely Republican to Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

National Democrats recently pulled advertising funding here to shore up Democrats in other races, which is bad news for Democrat John Foust. Republican candidate Barbara Comstock was always favored and now looks like a safe bet to head to Congress. This district, on the edge of the Washington metropolitan area, still appears to be a few years away from moving toward the Democrats.

West Virginia 1^st District: Safe Republican; Removed from Ratings

Democratic challenger Glen Gainer says he is focusing on a grassroots effort rather than wasting precious funding on advertising. That’s probably the best spin he can put on it, but what that really means is the money isn’t there because he doesn’t have any chance to win. Republican incumbent David McKinley is a safe bet for reelection.

Election Projections: October 4, 2014

by Cliston Brown | Oct 4, 2014 | Election Analysis

I have very few changes this week, but all of my rating changes are in New England, and they all favor the GOP. No races are moving from the Democratic column to the Republican column, but three are inching in the Republicans’ direction. Click here for the updated Ratings Chart.

Massachusetts Governor: Likely D to Leaning D; Watch List

Democrat Martha Coakley appears to be in danger of repeating the late fade she had in a special U.S. Senate election against Republican Scott Brown in 2009. A series of polls has shown her trailing or neck-and-neck with Republican challenger Charlie Baker. Given the state’s heavy Democratic lean, I am not prepared to call Baker the favorite, but given Coakley’s history, I am moving this race from “Likely Democratic” to “Leans Democratic” and placing it on the Watch List. If Ms. Coakley loses a second high-profile statewide race in one of the nation’s most liberal states, she should retire from politics.

New Hampshire U.S. Senate: Likely D to Leaning D

In the U.S. Senate race in New Hampshire, some recent polling has shown the aforementioned Scott Brown (R), the former Senator from Massachusetts, improving his standing against incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. I still think Shaheen is leading, but I am moving this race from “Likely Democratic” to “Leans Democratic.”

Maine 2^nd District, U.S. House: Watch List

In the U.S. House, I am adding the race in Maine 2 to the Watch List. A recent Portland Press-Herald poll showed Republican Bruce Poliquin leading Democrat Emily Cain by 10 points. Given the fact that this district typically leans Democratic and that there has been very little public polling, my inclination is that this poll is probably off, but I am adding the race to the Watch List and seeking further information.

Current Picture

At this point, Republicans remain favored to pick up a net of eight U.S. House seats for a 242-193 majority and a net of six U.S. Senate seats for a 51-47 majority with two independents. (I count independent Senator Bernie Sanders as a Democrat due to the fact that he files on the Democratic and independent lines when running for election, and the fact that his political philosophy ensures that he will caucus with the Democrats in any case.)

It is also to be expected that if the Republicans do, in fact, secure 51 seats, the two true independents—Senator Angus King of Maine and, presuming he wins, Greg Orman of Kansas—will caucus with the Republicans, thereby giving the GOP a 53-47 organizational majority. It would make no sense for either of them to cast their lot with the minority party.

At this point, it still appears that Democrats are on course to pick up a net of two governorships, which would leave Republicans in charge of 27 governors’ mansions to the Democrats’ 23.

Election Projections: September 28, 2014

by Cliston Brown | Sep 28, 2014 | Election Analysis

This week’s updates, in terms of the raw numbers, show a shift to the Republicans in the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House and in two gubernatorial races. Looking at the most recent available public polling, this blog now believes that it is clear that the Republican Party is on pace to capture 51 seats—and the majority—in the Senate. It also appears that the GOP is on pace to make a net gain of eight seats in the House, for a 242-193 majority, and to lose a net of two governorships, as compared to this blog’s opinion last week that Republicans were on pace to lose four. Updates to the ratings are pointed out below, and the chart of all competitive races, and their ratings, can be found by clicking here.

Senate Race Updates

Iowa

I have long recognized the weakness of the campaign of Democrat Bruce Braley, currently a U.S. representative from Iowa’s 1^st District, who was caught on tape some months ago making a remark disparaging the notion of a farmer (Iowa’s Republican Senator, Chuck Grassley) becoming the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. Meritorious or not, this remark was bound to cause him trouble in Iowa, and the results of a Sept. 24 Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, by respected pollster Selzer & Co., indicate he has never recovered from the gaffe. Selzer’s Iowa Poll now shows Republican Joni Ernst ahead by 6 points. While the last 12 polls have had Braley ahead in three and Ernst ahead in three, with the other six tied, Ernst appears to have the edge and this blog is moving Iowa from “Leans Democratic” to “Leans Republican,” and this puts Republicans on track to claim 51 Senate seats on Election Day.

North Carolina

I have always considered this state the best shot, in all the 2012 Romney seats held by Democrats, for the Democrats to hang on, and the recent polling indicates that Sen. Kay Hagan (D) is ahead by a slim but consistent margin. She has led in 10 of the last 11 polls since mid-August, and her opponent, Republican Thom Tillis, led by only 1 point in the one poll which he led. I am now moving this race from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.”

Oregon

The campaign of Republican challenger Monica Wehby has been a train wreck, beset by numerous allegations against Wehby that include plagiarism and stalking. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) holds double digit polling leads, and I see no way that he loses this race. This blog is moving Oregon from “Likely Democratic” to “Safe Democratic.”

South Dakota

The uncertainty inherent in a three-candidate race, with former Republican Sen. Larry Pressler achieving sizable polling numbers as an independent, has kept South Dakota at “Likely Republican.” However, Gov. Mike Rounds (R) continues to hold a double digit lead, and this blog is moving South Dakota from “Likely Republican” to “Safe Republican.”

Colorado

Although the most recent public polls give a slight lead, on average, to challenger Cory Gardner (R), a Quinnipiac poll giving him an 8-point lead appears to be an outlier. The preponderance of the public polling still favors Sen. Mark Udall (D), but if more than two notable polls show a Gardner lead, a reassessment of the race may be in order. For now, this race stays “Leans Democratic” but moves onto the Watch List. Keep in mind that recent elections have shown Democrats outperforming their polling numbers in Colorado on Election Day.

Alaska

Sen. Mark Begich (D) has not led in a single poll since August 3^rd, and this blog already has this race designated “Leans Republican.” The average lead for Republican challenger Dan Sullivan is just shy of 5 points. If Begich’s numbers do not begin improving soon, the race will shift to “Likely Republican,” but I am going to keep it unchanged right now until more data is available. At this point, I am confident enough of a Republican lead in this race to move it off the Watch List. In recent elections, Republicans have considerably outperformed their polling numbers in Alaska on Election Day.

House Race Updates

New York 11^th District

It has long been presumed that Congressman Michael Grimm (R), embroiled in legal issues, would lose this district centered on Staten Island and also including a small part of Brooklyn. However, a Siena College poll published Sept. 17^th actually showed Grimm with a 4-point lead over Democrat Dominic Recchia. Given the district’s Republican lean and the results of the recent poll, I am moving the race from “Leans Democratic” to “Leans Republican” and placing this race on the Watch List.

Hawaii 1^st District

A recent Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG poll showed former Congressman Charles Djou (R) leading Democratic nominee Mark Takai by 4 points. Given that polling in Hawaii is sometimes wildly off the mark, as well as Hawaii’s considerable Democratic skew, it is hard to take this poll at face value. That said, Djou has previously won the district, albeit in a special election, and even when he lost the seat, he competed well. I am moving this race from “Likely Democratic” to “Leans Democratic” and moving it to the Watch List.

Gubernatorial Race Updates

Michigan

A series of polls showing a tightening race, including a poll showing Democratic challenger Mark Schauer with a slight lead on August 10^th, caused me to take a gamble and bet on Schauer’s trend line. Since that time, recent polling has shown Republican Gov. Rick Snyder reopening a lead, and I am moving this race from “Leans Democratic” to “Leans Republican.” I am keeping it on the Watch List for now.

Wisconsin

Democratic challenger Mary Burke appeared to be making a move in the polls, but the last two have gone back in the direction of Gov. Scott Walker (R). This is a very tight race, but with Walker leading in a slight majority of polls right now, I am moving this race back from “Leans Democratic” to “Leans Republican,” but also putting it on the Watch List.

Maryland

Democrat Anthony Brown is averaging a 15-point lead over Republican Larry Hogan, and Maryland is a heavily Democratic state. This blog is moving Maryland from “Likely Democratic” to “Safe Democratic.”

Minnesota

Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton has not trailed in a single public poll and, on average, leads Republican challenger Jeff Johnson by 9 points. This blog is moving Minnesota from “Likely Democratic” to “Safe Democratic.”

Nebraska

There is no evidence that Democrat Chuck Hassebrook is making inroads in this heavily Republican state against Republican Pete Ricketts, who led the most recent public poll by 20 points. This blog is moving Nebraska from “Likely Republican” to “Safe Republican.”

New Hampshire

Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan has not led Republican Walt Havenstein by fewer than 12 points in a single reputable public poll. This blog is moving New Hampshire from “Likely Democratic” to “Safe Democratic.”

South Carolina

No reputable public polling has shown Democratic challenger Vincent Sheheen within 10 points of Gov. Nikki Haley (R) in the last 11 months. Despite the fact that these two candidates had a close race four years ago, there is no way to keep this one in the “Likely Republican” column, and I am moving it to “Safe Republican.” Frankly, I missed the boat on this one by not moving it earlier.

Colorado

A recent outlier by Quinnipiac showing Republican challenger Bob Beauprez with a 10-point lead has skewed the numbers to give him a slight lead, on average, but this poll is so far afield from all other recent polling that I tend to discount it. As in the Senate race, I am also factoring in the fact that Democrats, in recent years, have outperformed their polling numbers in Colorado and keeping this race at “Leans Democratic” in favor of Gov. John Hickenlooper. However, I am moving it onto the Watch List.

Election Projections: September 20, 2014

by Cliston Brown | Sep 20, 2014 | Election Analysis

The Wide World of Politics Blog Election Ratings reports two changes this week.
First, developments in the Kansas Senate race have led me to move this race from “Leans Republican” to “Leans Independent.” The recent ruling of the Kansas Supreme Court that Democrat Chad Taylor may, in fact, withdraw his name from the ballot is clearly beneficial to independent candidate Greg Orman, and one-on-one polling pitting Orman against incumbent GOP Senator Pat Roberts shows a clear Orman lead. This blog now sees Orman as a slight favorite, though it remains to be seen if the professional help Roberts has recently begun to receive from GOP HQ in Washington will help him right his sinking ship.

This rating change now puts the Republicans at 50 seats—1 shy of a majority—and the Democrats at 48 seats, with two independents, Orman and Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), positioned to determine the Senate majority. King currently caucuses with Democrats.

The second rating change involves the Illinois governor’s race. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn has been struggling for a plethora of reasons, but recent polling has shown Quinn rebounding considerably and moving ahead of Republican businessman Bruce Rauner. Given Quinn’s big move in the polls, and his history of overcoming long odds to prevail, not to mention the state’s strong Democratic edge, this blog has now moved the Illinois governor’s race from “Leans Republican” to “Leans Democratic,” though it also has been added to the Watch List.

This rating change now shows an even split at the gubernatorial level, with Republicans and Democrats each poised to control 25 seats, though two of this blog’s ratings (favoring Democrats in Michigan and Wisconsin) are out of step with most predictions at this point. This blog favors Democrats Mark Schauer in Michigan and Mary Burke in Wisconsin due to their recent upward polling trends. It remains to be seen if a plagiarism flap involving Burke will halt or reverse her momentum.

Click here for the newest ratings sheet.

Election Ratings: September 13, 2014

by Cliston Brown | Sep 13, 2014 | Election Analysis

Now that all states have held their primaries and the general-election nominees have all been determined, I am publishing my first list of race ratings for the U.S. House of Representatives, the U.S. Senate, and governors’ races across the country. Here I will provide some basic explanations of my Election Race Ratings Chart.

First, I have selected only those races that have been deemed competitive, either by myself or another leading, reputable election analyst (such as Larry Sabato, Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, etc.). Therefore, not every race will appear here. Those offices that are not listed are considered safe for the party currently holding them.

My chart lists, from left to right, the state or district; the Democratic candidate; the Republican candidate; and my current rating of the race. If the state or district is currently held by a Democrat, it is colored blue; if the state or district is currently held by a Republican, it is colored red. Lighter shades of blue or red denote an “open seat” race in which no incumbent is seeking reelection. In the candidate columns, incumbents are listed in bold type. In the rating column, races in which I rate the Democrat a favorite will be colored light blue if it leans Democratic; medium blue if it is likely Democratic; and dark blue if it is safe Democratic. Similarly, I use light red, medium red and dark red, respectively, for leaning, likely or safely Republican.

As to the ratings themselves, I will differ from the more established analysts in one crucial respect: I do not list any races as toss-ups. In races that appear extremely close, I am exercising my best judgment to project them either “Lean D” or “Lean R.” I make these judgments based on the following factors:

1) Current polling numbers (where available). This is the key factor, but these are much more available in Senate and gubernatorial races. Many House races have little, if any, reputable public polling readily available.

2) Current polling trends; even in a case in which a candidate may still be trailing by a small margin, if his/her polling trends are clearly moving upward, I may move a race rating in his/her direction. (Key examples here include the governors’ races in Michigan and Wisconsin, which I currently rate “Lean D” due to the upward trending of the Democratic candidates in that race. If those trends reverse in the coming weeks, I will reassess.)

3) The district’s electoral history—for example, if a state or district has a history of flipping depending on whether it is a presidential year or a midterm; if the race is a rematch of a close race in a previous election; if the trends in a state or district are moving in favor of one party or the other; etc. (A key example is the 10th District of Illinois, which has a Democratic partisan voting index, but where Republican House candidates traditionally overperform and where the Republican candidate, Bob Dold, has previously been elected to the House.)

4) An unusually impressive (or unimpressive) candidate, or a relatively new or unknown candidate who may appear to have great potential (A key example is Republican nominee Marilinda Garcia in New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District.)

In marginal races that would normally be listed as toss-ups in which I still have a strong degree of uncertainty, I add a black box next to the rating to denote that the race is on my “Watch List.” A race may be watch-listed for any of the factors listed above.

This site will publish an updated list every Saturday between now and the election. At this moment, my ratings indicate the Republican Party will pick up a net of 7 seats in the U.S. House, for a 241-194 majority, and 6 seats in the U.S. Senate, for a 51-49 majority. The Democratic Party, meanwhile, appears headed for a net pickup of 3 governors’ mansions, which, if accurate, would leave the Republicans with a 26-24 advantage.

In future ratings, this site will also make estimates as to the partisan control of state legislatures after the November elections.

For the current race ratings, please click here.

Why Virginia Is The State To Watch In 2013

by Cliston Brown | Oct 14, 2013 | Election Analysis

I almost always take the position that odd-year state races say little or nothing about what will happen in national elections a year or two away. Generally, these elections are very localized, and the fact that a particular party may win a particular state in an odd year does not necessarily indicate a national trend. To wit: Democratic gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey in 2001 were followed by Republican victories in the 2002 Congressional elections.

But I would hedge my normal statement by inviting readers to take a long, close look at what happens in Virginia next month. As astute observers of the political scene may know, Virginia has become, in recent years, a bellwether in presidential elections. In both 2008 and 2012, Virginia came the closest of any state to the overall national margin; in fact, the margin of victory in Virginia for President Barack Obama in 2012 was only 0.02 percentage points higher than his national margin. (Virginia had been 0.98 percentage points more Republican than the national margin in 2008, also the closest correlation between any state and the overall margin).

Now, keep in mind the fact that I’m not talking about the gubernatorial race or the other down-ballot statewide races. Barring some sort of colossal screw-up over the next few weeks, Democrats Terry McAuliffe and Ralph Northam, respectively, are shoo-ins to win the governor’s race and the lieutenant governor’s race. Both have consistently led in virtually all polls conducted since the spring. Their victories would be all but certain regardless of whether the national Republican Party was in the process of torching its brand in Washington these days. Republican gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli is too far right on social issues to appeal to the suburban electorate in this demographically diverse swing state, and the party’s candidate for lieutenant governor, E.W. Jackson, has made such crazy pronouncements as to make Cuccinelli look liberal by comparison. And while there have been few polls in the attorney general’s race between Mark Herring (D) and Mark Obenshain (R), Herring does appear to have a slight lead, and he could give the Democrats a clean sweep of the statewide races.

The results of those three races will probably say much less about the prospects of Virginia Republicans than they will say about what happens when your party holds a convention rather than a primary—which, of course, draws only the truest of the true believers—and ends up nominating a bunch of candidates who are too extreme to pass the smell test. And the results of the statewide races probably say nothing at all of what may be coming in 2014 or 2016 on a national level.

But what I would suggest watching very closely is what happens in the Virginia House of Delegates. Currently, Republicans have a spectacularly outsized 65-32 majority (as compared to a 20-20 split in the state Senate, which is not up for election this year). There are two vacant seats, both of which had been held by Republicans, and one independent.

I am not going to suggest that Democrats might take control of the House of Delegates this year. That’s not happening, and any political analyst who would predict that result should have his/her head examined. Democrats would have to pick up 18 seats, and while that kind of swing may happen in Minnesota or Maine, it is unheard of in Virginia. It took Republicans two cycles to go from a 53-45 majority to their current 65-32 advantage, and the 2009 and 2011 elections took place in a period when the Tea Party movement was flying high.

But there are opportunities for Democrats to eat into the Republican edge. The question here is: how much?

Geoffrey Skelley, one of the very talented political analysts at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, did a comprehensive analysis of this year’s Virginia legislative elections on August 8th. By his estimate, it may be possible for Democrats to pick up six or seven seats, which would cut the GOP advantage to something around 60-40. But there are 12 legislative seats currently held by Republicans in districts that went for the president in last year’s elections, and two more where Obama barely lost.

For Democrats to pick up as many as six or seven seats could probably be explained away as a simple matter of political gravity. It is very difficult to see how Republicans could win any more than 67 of 100 House seats in Virginia, even taking into account issues of gerrymandering and inefficient distribution of Democrats. In short, the Republicans have maxed out in the House of Delegates; there’s really only one direction they can go, and it isn’t a good one from their point of view. Democratic pickups this year are to be expected, and would likely be expected regardless of the national environment.

But if Democrats can somehow win more than six or seven seats, perhaps taking upwards of 10 or 11 of the 14 GOP-held districts where Obama won or barely lost in 2012, that would be harder to explain away as mere gravity. It would almost surely indicate an electorate that has turned against Republicans in a major way, in a state that recently has more closely mirrored the national electorate than any other. That would be significant, and that’s why the Virginia House of Delegates is what you should be watching on the night of November 5th.

What Mark Sanford's Victory Means

by Cliston Brown | May 7, 2013 | Election Analysis

My boss asked me this morning who was going to win the special U.S. House election between former Gov. Mark Sanford (R-South Carolina) and his Democratic opponent, Elizabeth Colbert Busch, sister of comedian extraordinaire Stephen Colbert. I told him Sanford was going to win by about 52% to 48%. I was a little short on the margin, which ended up around 55%-45%, but correct on the result.

I was able to pick Sanford in part because the polling had swung wildly in his direction, but also due to the inescapable fact that the 1st District of South Carolina is heavily Republican. It voted for Mitt Romney by 18 percentage points last year, a significantly larger margin than Romney achieved in the state as a whole. And if your district is to the right of South Carolina as a whole, it’s not voting for any Democrat, regardless of circumstances.

I also picked Sanford because of the trend we are seeing across the country, which is that voters are voting much more based on ideology than on personal characteristics. We saw an example of this in the easy reelection of Sen. David Vitter (R-Louisiana) despite his prostitution scandal.

It is true that sometimes, people go against their own partisan grain if their party’s candidate says or does something particularly offensive, and we saw that in the landslide defeat last year of former U.S. Rep. Todd Akin (R-Missouri) in his Senate race against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Missouri). I’m not convinced that Akin would have won that race if he hadn’t made his idiotic comment about rape—I think McCaskill is a much better politician than she gets credit for, and I cannot believe that her landslide win was entirely due to Akin’s flub—but I think it’s clear that the race would have been much closer without Akin’s disastrous gaffe.

That said, it appears, more and more, that while some mistakes can still sink a candidate, a candidate’s marital infidelity is no longer one of those fatal miscues. Admittedly, this hasn’t really been tested when it comes to female candidates—and it would be interesting to see how such a scenario would play out—but can you name the last male candidate for high office who lost an election, which he otherwise would likely have won, strictly because he cheated on his wife? We might have to go back to Gary Hart, whose promising 1988 presidential run tanked after he was discovered to be having an affair.

For all the talk about “family values” and the “sanctity of marriage” emanating from the GOP, Republicans in South Carolina’s 1st District had no qualms today about sending an admitted adulterer to represent them in Congress, just as their Republican compatriots in Louisiana had no issue reelecting Vitter. And on the other side, the job approval of Democratic President Bill Clinton was never higher than it was when Republicans—led by confirmed adulterers Newt Gingrich and Henry Hyde—impeached him for the fallout surrounding his affair with an intern.

It looks like the big lesson from Mark Sanford’s victory tonight was that marital infidelity doesn’t matter in politics, as long as a candidate remains faithful to the ideology of his constituents.

Blue vs. Red—Or Blue vs. Gray?

by Cliston Brown | Apr 27, 2013 | Election Analysis

A few weeks ago, I did an analysis of all the final 2012 election results broken down by region. I wanted to see how the results came out if we compared the South against the rest of the country, and also to see what kind of majority President Obama compiled outside the South.

While the results were by no means a surprise, they did demonstrate, as expected, a stark political difference between the South and the rest of the country.

I broke the country into four regions: Northeast, Midwest, West and South, each containing either 12 or 13 states in order to make the comparisons as apples-to-apples as possible. As a result, West Virginia ended up as the only red (Republican) state in the Northeast, even though I think most people would rightly consider West Virginia a Southern state, culturally and politically. But it also has historical ties to the Northeast as well, so one can make a case either way.

And I included Oklahoma in the South, which—based upon virtually every interaction I’ve ever had with Oklahomans—seems to me to be a fair and correct designation. I know many Oklahomans consider themselves Midwesterners, but as a native Midwesterner myself, I see Oklahoma having far more in common—culturally, politically and geographically—with the South than the Midwest.

I also designated Kentucky as a Southern state, and I can’t imagine I’d get much disagreement from anyone on that one. I challenge anyone to find a Midwesterner, or even very many Kentuckians, who’d consider Kentucky a Midwestern state.

Feel free to disagree with any of those designations, but let’s say, for instance, that we shifted Oklahoma into the Midwest and West Virginia out of the Northeast and into the South; neither move would have changed the results for any of those regions by very much. For example, the Midwest would have gone from favoring President Obama by about 51%-48% to about 50%-49%.

The results were clear: the South is not just a political outlier, as compared to the rest of the country, but it is out of touch with the rest of the country by an extremely large margin. Using the breakdown I employed, I found that President Obama won the Northeast 58.6%-39.8%; the West 54.2%-43.2%; and the Midwest 50.7%-47.6%. His victories in the Northeast and West were by double-digit, landslide margins; his victory in the Midwest was close, but clear.

Taking all the non-Southern states as a unit, President Obama walked away with a double-digit landslide: 54.3%-43.7% For purposes of comparison, this margin of victory in the Northeast, Midwest and West would be roughly on a par with the national victories won by Presidents Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956; George H.W. Bush in 1988; Clinton in 1996; and even Franklin Roosevelt in 1940 and 1944. President Obama’s reelection victory was a landslide—if we exclude the South.

But in the South, it was an entirely different story. In this part of the country, even taking into account President Obama’s victories in the two most non-Southern states in this region (Florida and Virginia), Mitt Romney came away with a landslide victory of his own: 54.3%-44.5%. This is almost a mirror image of what happened in the rest of the country.

So when you’re thinking about how close the national popular vote was in the 2012 election (51.1%-47.2%) and thinking that we have a closely divided nation, you’re partly right and you’re partly wrong. The bottom line is that most of the country reelected the President by a large margin. But the dominance of cultural and political conservatism in the South is what created this artificial closeness in the overall electorate. When conservatives talk about “Heartland values,” they are really talking about Southern values. Don’t be fooled by this hooey; the Midwestern “Heartland” voted for the president.

Most of the country backed the president and his program by decisive margins. It is the South, the conservative outlier, that continues to pull the rest of country’s politics away from its natural, more moderate orbit. And it has been this way from the dawn of American independence. The tail, to a large degree, is wagging the dog.

So the next time you hear about “blue states” vs. “red states,” remember that it’s really more about the Blue vs. the Gray—just as it always has been and probably always will be.