30 Scenarios For The 2023 College Football Playoff

by | Nov 28, 2023 | Sports

SCENARIO 1: All four undefeated teams win.

  1. Georgia (13-0) vs. 4) Florida State (13-0)
  2. Michigan (13-0) vs. 3) Washington (13-0)

SCENARIO 2: Three unbeatens win, Washington loses to Oregon.

  1. Georgia (13-0) vs. 4) Oregon (12-1)
  2. Michigan (13-0) vs. 3) Florida State (13-0)

SCENARIO 3: Three unbeatens win, Florida State loses to Louisville, Texas wins.

  1. Georgia (13-0) vs. 4) Texas (12-1)
  2. Michigan (13-0) vs. 3) Washington (13-0)

SCENARIO 4: Three unbeatens win, Michigan loses to Iowa, Texas wins.

  1. Georgia (13-0) vs. 4) Texas (12-1)
  2. Washington (13-0) vs. 3) Florida State (13-0)

SCENARIO 5: Three unbeatens win, Georgia loses to Alabama, Texas wins.

  1. Michigan (13-0) vs. 4) Texas (12-1)
  2. Washington (13-0) vs. 3) Florida State (13-0)

SCENARIO 6: Georgia and Michigan win, Texas wins, Washington and Florida State lose.

  1. Georgia (13-0) vs. 4) Texas (12-1)
  2. Michigan (13-0) vs. 3) Oregon (12-1)

SCENARIO 7: Georgia and Florida State win, Texas wins, Michigan and Washington lose.

  1. Georgia (13-0) vs. 4) Texas (12-1)
  2. Florida State (13-0) vs. 3) Oregon (12-1)

SCENARIO 8: Georgia and Washington win, Texas wins, Michigan and Florida State lose.

  1. Georgia (13-0) vs. 4) Michigan (12-1)
  2. Washington (13-0) vs. 3) Texas (12-1)

SCENARIO 9: Michigan and Washington win, Texas wins, Georgia and Florida State lose.

  1. Michigan (13-0) vs. 4) Alabama (12-1)
  2. Washington (13-0) vs. 3) Texas (12-1)

SCENARIO 10: Michigan and Florida State win, Texas wins, Georgia and Washington lose.

  1. Michigan (13-0) vs. 4) Alabama (12-1)
  2. Florida State (13-0) vs. 3) Texas (12-1)

SCENARIO 11: Florida State and Washington win, Texas wins, Georgia and Michigan lose.

  1. Washington (13-0) vs. 4) Alabama (12-1)
  2. Florida State (13-0) vs. 3) Texas (12-1)

SCENARIO 12: Georgia wins, Texas wins, three other unbeatens lose.

  1. Georgia (13-0) vs. 4) Michigan (12-1)
  2. Texas (12-1) vs. 3) Oregon (12-1)

SCENARIO 13: Michigan wins, Texas wins, three other unbeatens lose.

  1. Michigan (13-0) vs. 4) Oregon (12-1)
  2. Texas (12-1) vs. 3) Alabama (12-1)

SCENARIO 14: Washington wins, Texas wins, three other unbeatens lose.

  1. Washington (13-0) vs. 4) Georgia (12-1)
  2. Texas (12-1) vs. 3) Alabama (12-1)

SCENARIO 15: Florida State wins, Texas wins, three other unbeatens lose.

  1. Florida State (13-0) vs. 4) Georgia (12-1)
  2. Texas (12-1) vs. 3) Alabama (12-1)

SCENARIO 16: All four unbeatens lose, Texas wins.

  1. Texas (12-1) vs. 4) Georgia (12-1)
  2. Alabama (12-1) vs. 3) Oregon (12-1)

SCENARIO 17: Three unbeatens win, Florida State loses to Louisville, Texas loses.

  1. Georgia (13-0) vs. 4) Ohio State (11-1)
  2. Michigan (13-0) vs. 3) Washington (13-0)

SCENARIO 18: Three unbeatens win, Michigan loses to Iowa, Texas loses.

  1. Georgia (13-0) vs. 4) Michigan (12-1)
  2. Washington (13-0) vs. 3) Florida State (13-0)

SCENARIO 19: Three unbeatens win, Georgia loses to Alabama, Texas loses.

  1. Michigan (13-0) vs. 4) Alabama (12-1)
  2. Washington (13-0) vs. 3) Florida State (13-0)

SCENARIO 20: Georgia and Michigan win, Texas loses, Washington and Florida State lose.

  1. Georgia (13-0) vs. 4) Ohio State (11-1)
  2. Michigan (13-0) vs. 3) Oregon (12-1)

SCENARIO 21: Georgia and Florida State win, Texas loses, Michigan and Washington lose.

  1. Georgia (13-0) vs. 4) Michigan (12-1)
  2. Florida State (13-0) vs. 3) Oregon (12-1)

SCENARIO 22: Georgia and Washington win, Texas loses, Michigan and Florida State lose.

  1. Georgia (13-0) vs. 4) Ohio State (11-1)
  2. Washington (13-0) vs. 3) Michigan (12-1)

SCENARIO 23: Michigan and Washington win, Texas loses, Georgia and Florida State lose.

  1. Michigan (13-0) vs. 4) Georgia (12-1)
  2. Washington (13-0) vs. 3) Alabama (12-1)

SCENARIO 24: Michigan and Florida State win, Texas loses, Georgia and Washington lose.

  1. Michigan (13-0) vs. 4) Georgia (12-1)
  2. Florida State (13-0) vs. 3) Alabama (12-1)

SCENARIO 25: Florida State and Washington win, Texas loses, Georgia and Michigan lose.

  1. Washington (13-0) vs. 4) Georgia (12-1)
  2. Florida State (13-0) vs. 3) Alabama (12-1)

SCENARIO 26: Georgia wins, Texas loses, three other unbeatens lose.

  1. Georgia (13-0) vs. 4) Ohio State (11-1)
  2. Oregon (12-1) vs. 3) Michigan (12-1)

SCENARIO 27: Michigan wins, Texas loses, three other unbeatens lose.

  1. Michigan (13-0) vs. 4) Georgia (12-1)
  2. Alabama (12-1) vs. 3) Oregon (12-1)

SCENARIO 28: Washington wins, Texas loses, three other unbeatens lose.

  1. Washington (13-0) vs. 4) Georgia (12-1)
  2. Alabama (12-1) vs. 3) Michigan (12-1)

SCENARIO 29: Florida State wins, Texas loses, three other unbeatens lose.

  1. Florida State (13-0) vs. 4) Georgia (12-1)
  2. Alabama (12-1) vs. 3) Oregon (12-1)

SCENARIO 30: All four unbeatens lose, Texas loses.

  1. Alabama (12-1) vs. 4) Michigan (12-1)
  2. Georgia (12-1) vs. 3) Oregon (12-1)

Fixing the College Football Realignment Mess–Update

by | Sep 26, 2023 | Sports

Since my earlier post on this topic, there have been several more moves, and the long and the short of it is that the Power 4 conferences now have 67 teams. If you add the last remaining vestiges of the Pacific-12 (Oregon State and Washington State) and Notre Dame, that would be 70 schools.

So, taking my “Premier League” concept, with a 70-team superconference structure, it is plainly obvious what needs to happen here: seven conferences of 10 teams each, geographically based, in which every conference member plays each other, and the seven conference champions, plus one at-large team, go to the playoffs.

Here’s how this idea would shake out:

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina State, South Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest.

This alignment would restore the original ACC, plus Virginia, Florida State and Georgia Tech. Rivalries restored would include North Carolina-South Carolina and Maryland-Virginia.

BIG TEN CONFERENCE: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin.

This would get us back to the Big Ten that existed from 1953-1991, after Michigan State took the spot vacated by the University of Chicago and before the addition of Penn State started all the realignment dominoes.

BIG TWELVE CONFERENCE: Brigham Young, Cincinnati, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Missouri, Nebraska, Utah.

This would restore six members of the original Big Eight and add western rivals BYU and Utah, along with eastern rivals Cincinnati and Louisville, none of whom have any other sensible place to land. Despite being widespread, it would still be more or less geographically contiguous, as Utah borders on Colorado and Kentucky borders on Missouri. I’d like to see it change its name (maybe something like the Heartland Conference). This alignment would restore the Kansas-Missouri rivalry and the Colorado-Nebraska rivalry.

EASTERN CONFERENCE: Boston College, Central Florida, Miami, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

This would be the conference that the original Big East football conference always should have been. It would restore the tradition of eastern football and bring Notre Dame into its natural footprint as well. Despite its Midwestern location, Notre Dame’s fan following in the northeast, and its traditional rivalries with Boston College and Miami, makes it a natural to round out this eastern league. On a 12-game schedule, it could keep its rivalries with USC and Stanford. (Unless the Irish and their fans just can’t get enough of playing Marshall and East Tennessee State.) Should Notre Dame balk and decide to stay independent, the league could plug in another former Big East member (Connecticut, South Florida or Temple) or stay at nine schools. Rivalries restored would include West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh, Penn State, Syracuse and Virginia Tech; Penn State vs. Pittsburgh and Syracuse; Miami vs. Notre Dame.

PACIFIC TEN CONFERENCE: Arizona, Arizona State, California, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, Southern California, Stanford, Washington, Washington State.

Another conference that would be restored to its moorings (and senses), the Pac-10 would return to what it was from the 1970s to the addition of Colorado and Utah.

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

The SEC would be restored to what it was from 1966 until the addition of Arkansas and South Carolina, both of whom would also return to their traditional homes (see SWC, ACC).

SOUTHWEST CONFERENCE: Arkansas, Baylor, Houston, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Southern Methodist, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Christian, Texas Tech.

This alignment would restore the traditional SWC (minus Rice) and add in the Oklahoma schools–the best of the old SWC and Big XII. Rivalries restored would include Oklahoma-Oklahoma State; SMU-TCU; and everybody vs. Texas.

Four bowls would become “playoff bowls,” with the Big Ten and Pac-10 champions once again squaring off in the Rose Bowl, as it should be. The SEC champion would once again go to the Sugar Bowl. The Big XII or Heartland champion would take the Big Eight’s traditional spot in the Orange Bowl, and the Southwest Conference champion would take that league’s traditional spot in the Cotton Bowl. The ACC and Eastern Conference champions, as well as one at-large team (the highest-ranked team that failed to win a conference title), would fill out the other three spots, possibly on a rotating basis or based on rankings. The four playoff bowl champions would be seeded 1-4, with #1 playing #4 and #2 playing #3.

But what about TV revenue? Simple. Put the Big Ten Network in charge of the whole thing, since it is clearly the most successful conference network in history, and dole out equal revenues to all 70 teams. Schools can make additional dollars marketing their merchandise independently, so Notre Dame and other leading programs would be able to pull down their outsized shares of money that way.

While schools could naturally schedule whichever three nonconference opponents they like, some nonconference rivalries really should be played every year:

Arkansas-LSU

Arkansas-Missouri

Florida-Florida State

Georgia-Georgia Tech

Illinois-Missouri

Indiana-Kentucky

Iowa-Iowa State

Iowa-Nebraska

Kentucky-Louisville

LSU-Texas A&M

Maryland-West Virginia

Miami-Florida

Nebraska-Oklahoma

Notre Dame-USC

Notre Dame-Stanford

Virginia-Virginia Tech

Nobody can tell me that this wouldn’t be a superior solution compared to the mess we’ve got now.

Fixing the College Football Realignment Mess

by | Aug 12, 2023 | Sports

It has become clear that the realignment of the major collegiate athletic conferences has become a complete farce, with ridiculous, coast-to-coast conferences creating crazy travel schedules for supposed “student-athletes” and destroying the traditions and traditional regional rivalries that make college sports great.

The latest round of restructuring, as it happens, has resulted in exactly 64 schools spread among the “Power 4” conferences. As suggested by UCLA head coach Chip Kelly, an obvious solution here is to create a “super league” (which I first suggested years ago), and realigning those 64 schools into four conferences of 16 schools each, divided into eight-team divisions, which would essentially create an eight-team playoff: four conference championship games, two semifinals and a national championship game. Conference members would play all seven division rivals and two teams from the other division on a rotating basis, for a total of nine conference games. As such, every member of every conference plays every other member at least once in a four-year period. (Conferences would also be permitted to dispense with divisions if they choose and instead designate three permanent rivals for each school, rotating the other 12 conference members at six a year, so that everyone plays everyone home and away at least once in a four-year period.)

My proposed realignment would emphasize traditional rivalries and geographic realities to the degree possible (although three schools east of the Mississippi River would still end up in the Big XII). The traditional major bowl alliances would also be restored, with the Big Ten champion meeting the champion from the Big XII (which would absorb most of the former Pac-12) in the Rose Bowl, and the SEC champion going to the Sugar Bowl to face the ACC champion.

This new “Premier League” of college football would also allow for Notre Dame and the four Pac-12 members left out in the latest round of musical chairs to join as independents, and for one independent to potentially qualify for a playoff spot, in lieu of the lowest-ranked conference champion, if any of the independents meets three specific criteria.

ACC

Add: Maryland, Rutgers from Big Ten; West Virginia from Big XII

Lose: Louisville to Big XII

Bringing Maryland back to its traditional home and adding Rutgers and West Virginia gives the ACC the entire Atlantic coast footprint, and it also restores eastern football in a meaningful way. The ACC North would be what the Big East should have been (minus Penn State). More than half of the traditional ACC, plus the Florida and Georgia additions, would be together in the ACC South.

The only downside to the plan is that Virginia and North Carolina would be in different divisions and, under a nine-game conference schedule with two foes rotating every year, the UVA-UNC rivalry would only be played as a conference game once every four years. However, if both schools wish to continue playing every year, they could schedule each other for a nonconference game in the other three years (as North Carolina and Wake Forest do now). If the ACC wants to preserve the rivalry as a conference game every year, Florida State and Miami could be shifted to be with the eastern football schools, with Virginia and Virginia Tech shifting into the division with the North Carolina schools, Clemson and Georgia Tech. Given Miami’s history with the other eastern schools, including as a founding member of the Big East football conference, this would make some sense from a traditional standpoint.

ACC North

Boston College

Maryland

Pittsburgh

Rutgers

Syracuse

Virginia*

Virginia Tech*

West Virginia

ACC South

Clemson

Duke

Florida State*

Georgia Tech

Miami*

North Carolina

North Carolina State

Wake Forest

*—Virginia and Virginia Tech could swap places with Florida State and Miami if needed to preserve the Virginia-North Carolina rivalry.

If the ACC chose not to have divisions, the slate of permanent rivals might look like this:

Boston College: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Rutgers

Clemson: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami

Duke: North Carolina, Wake Forest, North Carolina State

Florida State: Miami, Clemson, Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech: Clemson, Florida State, Miami

Maryland: Virginia, West Virginia, Rutgers

Miami: Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson

North Carolina: Duke, North Carolina State, Virginia

North Carolina State: North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest

Pittsburgh: West Virginia, Syracuse, Boston College

Rutgers: Maryland, Syracuse, Boston College

Syracuse: Boston College, Pittsburgh, Rutgers

Virginia: Virginia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina

Virginia Tech: Virginia, West Virginia, Wake Forest

Wake Forest: Duke, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech

West Virginia: Pittsburgh, Maryland, Virginia Tech

SEC

Add: Oklahoma State from Big XII

Lose: Missouri to Big Ten

More than any of the other Power 4, the SEC has done a good job of expanding in a way that makes sense. Only Missouri, which is more in the Big Ten’s footprint (and really wanted to join the Big Ten) is an odd fit in the SEC. Swapping Missouri for Oklahoma State would restore two of college football’s great traditional rivalries: Missouri-Kansas (see Big Ten) and Oklahoma-Oklahoma State. It would also be a better fit for both the Big Ten and SEC’s geographical footprints.

SEC East

Alabama

Auburn

Florida

Georgia

Kentucky

South Carolina

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

SEC West

Arkansas

LSU

Mississippi

Mississippi State

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Texas

Texas A&M

Should the SEC elect not to have divisions, it would be very, very easy to designate three permanent rivals for each school. The only games that would not be considered traditional rivalries would be South Carolina-Kentucky, Alabama-Mississippi State, Arkansas-Oklahoma State, and Mississippi State-Oklahoma State. However, Alabama and Mississippi State are neighbors, as are Arkansas and Oklahoma State, and Mississippi State and Oklahoma State both have similar positions in their states: as the “ag” school, looked down upon by the “flagship” school, and in that way would make very natural rivals.

Alabama: Auburn, Tennessee, Mississippi State

Arkansas: LSU, Texas, Oklahoma State

Auburn: Alabama, Georgia, Florida

Florida: Georgia, Auburn, South Carolina

Georgia: Florida, Auburn, South Carolina

Kentucky: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, South Carolina

LSU: Arkansas, Mississippi, Texas A&M

Mississippi: Mississippi State, LSU, Vanderbilt

Mississippi State: Mississippi, Alabama, Oklahoma State

Oklahoma: Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M

Oklahoma State: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi State

South Carolina: Georgia, Florida, Kentucky

Tennessee: Vanderbilt, Alabama, Kentucky

Texas: Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas

Texas A&M: Texas, LSU, Oklahoma

Vanderbilt: Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi

Big Ten

Add: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State from Big XII; Missouri from SEC

Lose: Oregon, Southern California, UCLA, Washington to Big XII; Maryland and Rutgers to ACC.

This new alignment would stop the madness and get the Big Ten back to what it used to be and always should be: a Midwestern-based league, with most traditional rivals playing each other every year. The Big Ten West would essentially be the core of the old Big Eight, minus the Oklahoma schools and Colorado.

Big Ten East

Illinois

Indiana

Michigan

Michigan State

Northwestern

Ohio State

Penn State

Purdue

Big Ten West

Iowa

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Minnesota

Missouri

Nebraska

Wisconsin

Should the Big Ten decide not to have divisions, it would be relatively easy to designate three permanent rivals for each conference member. The most difficult one to figure out would be Iowa, but its longstanding rivalries with Iowa State, Minnesota and Wisconsin would mean having to scrap Iowa vs. Nebraska on a yearly basis, and replacing it with Iowa State vs. Nebraska (a former Big Eight/Big XII rivalry). A non-divisional lineup could restore most of the Big Ten’s traditional trophy games (such as Illinois/Ohio State and Michigan/Minnesota) to yearly contests.

Illinois: Northwestern, Purdue, Ohio State

Indiana: Purdue, Michigan State, Northwestern

Iowa: Iowa State, Minnesota, Wisconsin

Iowa State: Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska

Kansas: Missouri, Kansas State, Nebraska

Kansas State: Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

Michigan: Ohio State, Michigan State, Minnesota

Michigan State: Michigan, Indiana, Penn State

Minnesota: Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan

Missouri: Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State

Nebraska: Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State

Northwestern: Illinois, Indiana, Purdue

Ohio State: Michigan, Penn State, Illinois

Penn State: Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin

Purdue: Indiana, Illinois, Northwestern

Wisconsin: Minnesota, Iowa, Penn State

Big XII

Add: Louisville from ACC; Oregon, Southern California, UCLA and Washington from Big Ten

Lose: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State to Big Ten; Oklahoma State to SEC; West Virginia to ACC

With footholds in California, Texas and Florida under this new alignment, the Big XII shouldn’t miss Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and West Virginia very much. It would basically become a Sunbelt/Pacific coast league. Adding Louisville from the ACC would restore a traditional rivalry between UL and Cincinnati. The only odd fit would be Colorado in the East Division, but the Buffaloes are not likely to complain about annual matchups with four Texas schools and Central Florida. Seven of the old Pac-12 would be reunited in the West Division, plus BYU, thus preserving its “Holy War” rivalry with Utah.

Big XII East

Baylor

Central Florida

Cincinnati

Colorado

Houston

Louisville

Texas Christian

Texas Tech

Big XII West

Arizona

Arizona State

Brigham Young

Oregon

Southern California

UCLA

Utah

Washington

A non-divisional lineup with three permanent rivals per school might look like this, with emphasis on keeping together longstanding traditional rivalries (such as the Texas schools and the west coast schools). Unfortunately, there would be a handful of odd pairings (Arizona State-Louisville, BYU-UCF and BYU-Cincinnati), but because BYU traditionally has liked to travel due to its desire to be a messenger for the Mormon faith, this actually might work out all right.

Arizona: Arizona State, Colorado, Utah

Arizona State: Arizona, Colorado, Louisville

Baylor: TCU, Texas Tech, Houston

Brigham Young: Utah, Cincinnati, UCF

Central Florida: Cincinnati, Louisville, BYU

Cincinnati: Louisville, UCF, BYU

Colorado: Utah, Arizona, Arizona State

Houston: TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech

Louisville: Cincinnati, UCF, Arizona State

Oregon: Washington, USC, UCLA

Southern California: UCLA, Washington, Oregon

Texas Christian: Baylor, Houston, Texas Tech

Texas Tech: Baylor, TCU, Houston

UCLA: USC, Oregon, Washington

Utah: BYU, Colorado, Arizona

Washington: Oregon, UCLA, USC

Independents

The four Pac-12 schools left standing when the latest round of musical chairs stopped (California, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State), as well as Notre Dame, would be invited to join the new league as independents. It’s obvious that Notre Dame would have to be included. And clearly, the flagship school from the nation’s biggest state can’t be left out, nor can its chief rival, which is considered one of the world’s leading schools. Inviting Oregon State and Washington State is a call which is less clear-cut, but their football programs are arguably no worse than California’s or Stanford’s. The top-ranked independent each year would be eligible to make the playoffs (replacing the lowest-ranked conference champion) if it meets three criteria:

  1. Plays at least nine Premier League opponents. Because the members of the four conferences all would play nine conference games, this is only fair. (If all the independents play each other, they will have satisfied almost half this requirement and would only need to find five more opponents from the four conferences. If Notre Dame continues its deal with the ACC, in which it plays five ACC schools a year, the Irish would have a full slate, without even considering its annual rivalry game with USC.)
  2. Loses no more than one game.
  3. Outranks at least one conference champion.

Playoffs

Two bowls would be designated as the semifinals, with the Big Ten and Big XII champions playing in the Rose Bowl, and the ACC and SEC champions playing in the Sugar Bowl, both games being restored to New Year’s Day, in accordance with tradition, and the championship game to follow a week later. While the site could rotate, the best solution would be to have the game in Dallas every year (thereby throwing a nod to the old Cotton Bowl, which used to be considered one of the primary bowls, and also having it in a top-flight stadium close to the middle of the country). The lowest-ranked conference champion could be replaced by an independent if the top-ranked independent meets the three criteria listed earlier.

While the Orange Bowl would be left out of the rotation for the playoffs, it could also be a New Year’s Day bowl, with the top independent, or the conference champion replaced by the top independent, getting an automatic bid and facing the highest-ranked Premier League team that did not win its conference. No other bowls would be played on New Year’s Day.

A potential scenario for New Year’s Day would be as follows:

Orange Bowl: Notre Dame/USC vs. Alabama/Georgia

Rose Bowl (semifinal): Ohio State/Michigan vs. USC/Notre Dame

Sugar Bowl (semifinal): Georgia/Alabama vs. Clemson/Florida State