Today marks 30 days until Election Day, and taking into careful consideration the trends, demographics and key fundamentals in the states, my view is that Kamala Harris holds a slight edge over Donald Trump in the Electoral College, but is not yet a clear favorite.
At this time, I believe Harris has an edge in enough states to put her at 266 electoral votes, just four short of the 270 necessary to win, and that Donald Trump has an edge in enough states to put him at 236 electoral votes. I consider three states true tossups at this time: North Carolina, with 15 electoral votes; Arizona, with 11; and Wisconsin, with 10.
Crucially, at this time, I am characterizing Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada as “Leans D.” I believe that when all is said and done, the demographics in those states point to narrow Harris victories. I also characterize Georgia as “Leans R,” but this is largely due to the machinations of the Trumpist-controlled Georgia Elections Board. To put it plainly, I do not think Harris is going to be allowed to win Georgia. The actions taken by the board–particularly requiring a hand count of all ballots–virtually guarantee a chaotic, drawn-out post-election count, and this provides ample opportunity for bad actors to manipulate the counts.
If my characterizations are correct, that would mean Harris needs to win just one of North Carolina, Arizona or Wisconsin to win the election, while Trump would need to win all three.
I believe Harris’s likeliest win of the three is in Wisconsin, which is a closely divided state but also has a very strong, well-organized state-level Democratic Party. I also tend to think she likely has slightly better than a 50% chance to win in Arizona, where demographic trends are moving leftward. North Carolina will be the toughest of the three to win, but I expect that Harris has close to a 50/50 shot in the Tar Heel State.
However, even the slightest movement in one direction or the other could vastly change the picture. If Harris outperforms expectations–and heavy registration among younger voters, who tend to be less likely to show up in likely voter polling screens, could point in that direction–then wins in all seven of the swing states, perhaps even Florida, would not be off the table. But if Trump continues his trend of overperforming his polling, particularly in the “Rust Belt” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, a Trump sweep of the seven crucial states is entirely possible.
In the Senate, I have consistently said that I considered Republicans to be heavy favorites to flip the chamber this year, regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, due to the brutal Senate map Democrats face this cycle. My view remains unchanged. At this time, I consider Republican Jim Justice an absolute lock to flip the open seat in West Virginia, currently held by Democratic-caucusing independent Joe Manchin, and I also consider Republican challenger Tim Sheehy a prohibitive favorite in Montana over Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. This has nothing to do with Tester himself, but rather of his state’s strong Republican edge and the unmistakeable decline over the last two decades in ticket-splitting for Congressional races when they happen in a presidential year. Of the last 69 Senate races held during presidential elections (2016 and 2020), only one race has produced a split result, and that was in Maine in 2020, when Republican Susan Collins held her seat despite Democrat Joe Biden winning her state.
There are key reasons why I think Collins prevailed that do not apply inversely to Montana, not the least of which is that Republican voters in Montana are less likely to ticket-split in 2024 than Democratic voters in Maine were in 2020. Collins, late in the 2020 election race, voted against Trump Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, and enough Maine Democrats naively chose to “reward” Collins for that action to save her seat. Tester has no such dynamics playing in his favor in Montana, where Trump is likely to win by at least 14-15 points. It is hard to imagine upwards of 1 out of 7 Trump voters in Montana voting to keep Democrats in control of the U.S. Senate.
At this time, I consider Republicans clear favorites to win at least 51 of the 100 Senate seats, which would give them the majority. The only Senate race I consider a toss-up is Ohio, where Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown faces a difficult but possibly winnable race against Republican challenger Bernie Moreno. Like Tester, Brown represents a state that has lurched heavily to the right in recent years, but there are two key differences between Tester’s situation and Brown’s that lead me to believe Brown still has a good chance to prevail.
- First of all, Ohio is not nearly as heavily Republican as Montana is. Trump won Ohio by 8% in 2016 and 2020, while he won Montana by 20% and 15%. Brown doesn’t have as heavy of an anchor around his neck as Tester has.
- Brown also has a very strong relationship with working-class laborers in his state, and it is not inconceivable that just enough white, working-class voters who will vote for Trump will stick with Brown. Organized labor is much stronger in heavily industrialized Ohio than it is in largely rural Montana. This will not be an easy race for Brown, but if Harris outperforms expectations, she could help him by shaving two or three points off of Biden’s 8% loss margin in the Buckeye State in 2020.
Of the 11 Republican Senate seats that are on the ballot this year, Republicans are locks to win nine of them and favorites to hold their seats in Texas and Florida. I continue to believe Democrats have made a massive strategic error by essentially giving up on Florida, which I believe will be much closer this year than anybody expects, and if Harris and/or Democratic Senate nominee Debbie Mucarsel-Powell come up short, the Democratic Party will look back on Florida as a huge missed opportunity. I do not believe that Texas is close enough yet for either Harris or Democratic Senate nominee Colin Allred to prevail.
As to the House, at this time, I expect Democrats to net nine seats to take a narrow 223-212 majority. However, this is entirely dependent on Harris winning the election. If Trump wins, I expect Republicans to hold the House and perhaps slightly increase their current 221-214 majority.
In recent years, the correlation between presidential and House races has roughly mirrored the correlation between presidential and Senate races. In 2020, only 16 seats out of 435 had split results, with nine Biden-won districts electing Republicans, and seven Trump-won districts electing Democrats. The deviation, effectively, was only two seats. Whoever wins the presidency will almost certainly win a majority of House districts, and the number of House districts the president-elect wins will very closely mirror the number of House seats the president-elect’s party will win.
For a full breakdown of my characterizations of the presidential and Senate races in every state, as well as the priority that I think should be assigned to each state for the last 30 days, click here.
You will note that I assign the highest priority to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, all of which are crucial to the presidential race and all of which also have Senate races. I have also assigned “top priority” status to Arizona and Nevada, which have Senate races, and to North Carolina, which does not have a Senate race.
States I have characterized as being of “secondary priority” are Georgia, due to the closeness of the presidential race; and Texas, Florida, Ohio and Montana due to competitive Senate races.
I have characterized several states, including Minnesota, Maine and New Hampshire, as well as the Second Congressional district in Nebraska, as “watch closely.” While I believe these constituencies are all highly likely to vote for Harris, they should be watched for any late movement toward Trump.
The remaining 37 states, and the District of Columbia, I characterize as “Do Not Contest.” However, that label does not necessarily apply to every House race in those states, as a number of red states have at least one House district where Democrats can compete.
I will review these ratings at 15 days out and make final characterizations, without toss-ups, on Monday, November 4, 2024.