Iowa Caucuses Come Down To Turnout

by | Feb 1, 2016 | Election Analysis

I know better than to question Iowa super-pollster Ann Selzer, so I predict that Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic caucuses tonight and Donald Trump wins on the GOP side. Not only does Selzer have one of the best track records in the business, but the preponderance of polls in Iowa are in concord with her final polling released Saturday.

I will, however, offer one caveat: turnout.

All polling shows that Bernie Sanders and Trump tend to do better among those who have not caucused previously. If turnout is high tonight, they both stand to benefit. If it is lower, a win for Clinton is assured, and Ted Cruz could overtake Trump on the GOP side.

Additionally, on the GOP side, I expect the performances of Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum to be tepid enough that both will drop out in the coming days. Both would need to do well in the evangelical-dominated Iowa caucuses to have a path forward, but clearly there is more competition for evangelicals this year, and this is diluting their share of those votes. We’ll need to wait and see on Carly Fiorina.