by Cliston Brown | Nov 2, 2014 | Election Analysis
For the final Race Ratings chart, click here.
It is now beyond any reasonable doubt that the Republican Party will win control of the United States Senate for the next two years. They will do so by taking seven Democratic-held seats outright in Tuesday’s elections, and by winning two runoffs in Louisiana and Georgia in December and January, respectively.
I have now decided to change my representation of the race in Colorado to “Leans Republican” because I expect current U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner (R) to narrowly defeat incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Udall. While Democrats have outperformed their polling in Colorado over the last two cycles by 3.9% in each case, Gardner’s average polling lead is now at 3.8%, which means he is very close to having a clear lead. There are a couple other factors, possibly related, that lead me to believe the polling will prove accurate, at least as to the result if not the margin:
1) Republicans have submitted significantly more early ballots in Colorado than Democrats have, and while polling shows that those voters who are yet to vote favor Udall, it is also true that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Not everybody who tells a pollster that s/he plans to vote actually does so.
2) There have been numerous reports that many Hispanic voters, dismayed by President Obama’s continued record level of deportations, and furious with his recent postponement of an executive order addressing the immigration issue until after the elections, feel betrayed by the Democrats and may not vote at all this year. Colorado is one of the states where Hispanic turnout is key to Democratic support. The significant Republican edge in early voting in both Colorado and nearby Nevada seems to indicate that there may well be Hispanic erosion this year, and if that is true, the usual discrepancies in Colorado between polling and the actual results are less likely to occur. It is generally conceded that the polling failures in Colorado over the last two cycles resulted from an undercounting of Hispanic voters.
With these two considerations taken into account, I can no longer stick with Udall to win and I am changing that projection.
It is also clear that Republican Tom Cotton will decisively defeat Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor in Arkansas, and yesterday’s highly respected Iowa Poll by Selzer and Co. gave a 7-point lead to Republican Joni Ernst in her open-seat race against Democrat Bruce Braley. It is beyond any reasonable doubt in my mind that these two seats will also flip to the Republicans.
It has been clear for months that Republicans Steve Daines and Shelley Moore Capito will win open Democratic seats in Montana and West Virginia, respectively. And after a brief scare, Republican Mike Rounds has once again pulled out to a double-digit lead to take the open Democratic seat in South Dakota.
These aforementioned five seats appear all but certain to flip to the Republicans on Tuesday night. Gardner’s anticipated victory in Colorado should move that number to six.
In Alaska, recent polling has shown incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Begich recovering somewhat against Republican challenger Dan Sullivan, but recent polling in Alaska has severely underestimated the ultimate Republican performance. I expect Sullivan to unseat Begich, which now puts Republican net gains at seven seats, enough to win clear control of the chamber on Election Night.
The one potential trouble spot for Republicans is in Kansas, where incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts looks like he may well lose to independent challenger Greg Orman in a very close one. However, if the Republicans do, in fact, achieve a clear majority in the Senate, Orman can be expected to caucus with the Republicans. I am picking Orman to win, but I do not anticipate it will change the number of seats controlled by the GOP in 2015.
In Louisiana, Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu will not achieve the 50 percent she needs to avoid a December runoff, where all polling indicates she is going to be a clear underdog against her Republican challenger, Bill Cassidy. And in Georgia, despite a game effort, Democrat Michelle Nunn will not reach the needed 50 percent to avoid a January runoff against Republican David Perdue in a race for this open Republican seat. Perdue starts a runoff race as the favorite.
There now seems to be little hope that Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes will defeat unpopular incumbent Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, thereby setting McConnell up as the next majority leader in the Senate.
There are two other close Senate races in which Democrats are endangered, but in which I expect them to prevail narrowly. Sen. Kay Hagan looks positioned to barely hold on against Republican challenger Thom Tillis in North Carolina, and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is likely to win a close one against her Republican challenger, former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, in New Hampshire.
BOTTOM LINE: U.S. SENATE
I project the final result will be a Republican majority of 52 seats in the Senate, compared to 46 Democrats (including independent Bernie Sanders) and 2 independents. As I said before, I expect Orman, if he wins in Kansas, to caucus with the majority party. Also keep an eye on independent Sen. Angus King of Maine, who currently caucuses with the majority Democrats, but may find it more advantageous to organize with the Republicans once they have taken control of the chamber.
In the U.S. House of Representatives, I now expect a number of late-breaking races to flip to the Republicans, and I am moving six races from “Leans Democratic” to “Leans Republican.” They include the following:
Arizona 2nd District
Due to what may be a dropoff in Hispanic voting, especially in the west, I now venture an educated guess that Republican Martha McSally, who lost narrowly to Democrat Ron Barber in 2012, will upend the incumbent here.
California 26th District
Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley has been in danger for some time, and in a district that is 43 percent Hispanic, if the Latino vote truly does not materialize, she is in trouble. I am now picking Republican challenger Jeff Gorell to win this seat.
California 52nd District
It looked like incumbent Democratic Rep. Scott Peters might just hang on here, but the polling still favors Republican challenger Carl DeMaio, who is now my pick to win this seat.
Illinois 10th District
I have gone back and forth on this one, but what I have seen in polling, and the history of the district, now causes me to reverse course and pick former Republican Rep. Bob Dold to unseat current Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider. This will be one of the closest races anywhere.
Iowa 1st District
Early voting has not given the Democrats the edge they need to win in Iowa, and this looks like the most vulnerable Democratic seat. Current Rep. Bruce Braley has run an abysmal race for the U.S. Senate, and his numbers look like they may be enough of a drag to defeat his anointed successor, Pat Murphy. I am now picking Republican Rod Blum to win this seat.
Nevada 4th District
I think this is going to be very close, and that’s something Democrats had not counted on. Incumbent Rep. Steven Horsford was on nobody’s radar until about two weeks ago. But nowhere in the country have the early voting numbers been more catastrophic for Democrats than in Nevada, and I am going to take a calculated gamble and pick Republican challenger Cresent Hardy to upset the incumbent.
BOTTOM LINE: U.S. HOUSE
With these ratings changes, I now expect Republicans to make a net gain of 11 seats in the House, even though I expect them to lose a couple of their own seats (an open seat in Arkansas 2, and Rep. Lee Terry’s seat in Nebraska 2). This would give the GOP a 245-190 majority, up from their current 234-201 advantage, and this would mark the largest Republican majority in the U.S. House since 1948.
by Cliston Brown | Nov 2, 2014 | Election Analysis
For the first time in my eight years of picking election results, I am going to formally publish my projections for the nation’s gubernatorial races and for the control of the state legislatures.
As I have examined all the information over the last few weeks from various sources, including polls, media reports and historical trends, it has become clear that this will likely be a fairly typical sixth-year midterm election. Although the presidency of the United States is a federal office, the condition of the president’s political standing tends to carry over up and down the ballot, impacting races at the state and local levels as well.
Typically, in the sixth year of a two-term presidency, the president’s party suffers at the polls. Couple this historical fact with the fact that Democratic constituencies see huge drop-offs in turnout during non-presidential elections, and it becomes clear that the Republicans are going to do well this year, even though they are not especially popular.
Ironically, I do expect the Democrats to make a net pickup of governorships this year, in part because of extremely unpopular Republican incumbents. Polling data show fairly clearly that Democrat Tom Wolf will easily defeat Republican Gov. Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania.
In three other states, it is less clear-cut, but I do expect former Republican governor and current Democratic candidate Charlie Crist to narrowly edge Republican Gov. Rick Scott in Florida. This will be an extremely close race, but Crist does appear to have a very slight polling edge, and reports indicate that early voting is slightly better in Florida for Democrats than it was in 2010, when Scott won by about 1 percent against a candidate without Crist’s strengths (or, for that matter, his weaknesses).
I also am convinced, from the polling numbers, that Democrat Paul Davis will oust Republican Gov. Sam Brownback in Kansas, and that Democrat Mike Michaud will narrowly unseat Republican Gov. Paul LePage in Maine. The latter race, in which LePage is extremely unpopular, is much closer than it should be due to the presence of a strong third-party candidate, Eliot Cutler, who appears to be taking a lot of votes away from Michaud. However, Cutler seems to be fading a bit at the end and has acknowledged as much, telling supporters that if they don’t think he can win, to vote for someone else. That “someone else” appears much likelier to be Michaud than the unpopular LePage.
On the flip side, it is clear that the Democrats are going to lose some governorships they currently hold. In Arkansas, where incumbent Gov. Mike Beebe (D) is term-limited, Republican Asa Hutchinson has a clear polling lead over Democrat Mike Ross. And most disappointing of all for Democrats, it is now clear that Republican Charlie Baker is favored to defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in Massachusetts. (This will be Coakley’s second epic fail in the Bay State, where she lost a special Senate election to Republican Scott Brown when her polling numbers collapsed in the final two weeks. The Coakley Fade is once again in full force, and she even released an internal poll last week showing her behind.)
There are a number of other close races as well, but right now, I expect Democratic incumbents Dan Malloy in Connecticut and Pat Quinn in Illinois to hold on narrowly. I am more confident in Quinn than I am in Malloy; Quinn was thought to be politically dead four years ago, in a much worse environment for Democrats, but he won by such huge margins in Chicago and Cook County (where about 40 percent of the state’s votes are cast) that he squeaked by. I expect the same this time. It looks tougher for Malloy, but he does have a narrow lead, so he’s my pick.
In Colorado, incumbent Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper trails Republican Bob Beauprez by less than a point. Due to the difficulties pollsters have had in getting Colorado right over the last few cycles, I presume that Hickenlooper will win by 2-3 points.
Conversely, I expect Republican incumbents Rick Snyder and Scott Walker to hold on narrowly in Michigan and Wisconsin, respectively. Both governors have been very controversial and have trailed in various polls throughout the fall, but they both seem to be consolidating their support right now and eking out narrow leads.
Finally, I now expect Republican Gov. Sean Parnell to hang on narrowly in Alaska. Parnell appeared to be in serious jeopardy after the Democratic candidate dropped out to become the lieutenant governor candidate with independent Bill Walker. The independent/Democratic coalition has held polling leads over Parnell for most of the fall, but it has narrowed considerably. In recent elections, Republicans have significantly outperformed their polling numbers in Alaska, so I am now switching this race from “Leans Independent” to “Leans Republican.”
If everything goes as I expect, the Democrats will make a net gain of two governorships, reducing the Republican lead to 27-23.
While the Democrats may well have good news on the gubernatorial front Tuesday night, their position in the states is actually likely to emerge from this election in less favorable condition than it is today. At the moment, Republicans control the governorship and both legislative chambers in 25 states. Democrats have full control in only 12 states, and there is mixed control in the remaining 13 states.
Given the effects of the sixth-year midterm and Democratic underperformance in non-presidential years generally, I expect the Republicans to flip a number of Democratic-controlled legislative chambers, such that when the smoke clears, the Democrats will have full control of only nine states. I also expect full Republican control to be reduced slightly, to 24 states, with 17 states having mixed control.
Here is a rundown of where you can expect changes in the legislatures.
CALIFORNIA
Democrats control Assembly, 55-25
Democrats control Senate, 25-12 (3 vacancies)
While Democrats are certain to maintain their majorities in both the Assembly and Senate, it seems all but certain that Republicans will gain enough seats to deprive the Democrats of a 2/3 supermajority in at least one, if not both, chambers. The absence of a compelling governor’s race, in which Democratic incumbent Jerry Brown is poised to win big, has created a lack of interest, and turnout is expected to be low, thereby hurting Democrats in close districts.
COLORADO
Democrats control House, 37-28
Democrats control Senate, 18-17
Early voting in Colorado has favored Republicans by significant margins, so it appears clear that Republicans will net at least the one seat they need to take over the Senate. The House may go as well; Republicans need to net at least five seats.
FLORIDA
Republicans control House, 75-45
Republicans control Senate, 26-14
The only question here is whether Republicans will attain 2/3 supermajorities in each chamber, which will be crucial if Democrat Charlie Crist wins the governorship. The GOP needs five House seats and one Senate seat to attain supermajorities, and reports from Florida indicate that they are going to be right in the ballpark. I am going to venture an educated guess that they do achieve supermajorities in both chambers, as it is entirely plausible that voters in key districts may split their tickets to check a potential Democratic governor that neither party completely trusts.
ILLINOIS
Democrats control House, 71-47
Democrats control Senate, 40-19
Expect Republicans to pick off enough seats in at least the House to deprive the Democrats of their 60 percent supermajority in that chamber. This will be crucial to the Republicans if their gubernatorial candidate, Bruce Rauner, manages to oust incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn. If Quinn hangs on, then the Democratic-controlled legislature will not have to worry about bickering with a Republican governor and can go back to its usual business of bickering with a Democratic governor.
IOWA
Republicans control House, 53-47
Democrats control Senate, 26-24
The early voting numbers in Iowa look unusually poor for Democrats, so my bet is that Republicans are going to take control of the Senate this year, thereby gaining full political control of the state.
KENTUCKY
Democrats control House, 54-46
Republicans control Senate, 23-14-1
While Democratic Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes is not going to beat incumbent Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell, she may perform well enough to help save the state House of Representatives for the Democrats. Regardless of what happens in the House, Kentucky currently has a Democratic governor who is not up for election this year, so political control of the state will remain mixed.
MAINE
Democrats control House, 89-58-4
Democrats control Senate, 19-15-1
While Maine has been known to swing wildly—Republicans controlled both legislative chambers two years ago, and Democrats controlled both two years before that—the educated guess here is that the unpopularity of Republican Gov. Paul LePage prevents the GOP from getting majorities in the legislature.
MINNESOTA
Democrats control House, 73-61
Democrats control Senate, 39-28
Minnesota swings more wildly than almost any other state, so Republican gains can be expected, and big gains should not be a surprise. A six-seat gain would give them control of the Senate, and a seven-seat gain would flip the House. Democrats made big gains in 2012 to retake both chambers after Republicans made big gains in 2010 to take control. The popularity of Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton and Sen. Al Franken should blunt the expected Republican gains, but I am going to bet that they pick off at least one chamber of the legislature.
NEVADA
Democrats control Assembly, 27-15
Democrats control Senate, 11-10
Democrats are scrambling after the conclusion of early voting has proven to be an absolute catastrophe for them. Republicans won early voting everywhere, even in solidly Democratic Clark County, where the majority of the state’s residents live. It is beyond any doubt that the Republicans will take the Senate. The Assembly, where Republicans need to net seven seats, is a much harder lift, but between the Democrats’ early voting fail, and the popularity of GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval, who is cruising to reelection, I am going to roll the dice (appropriately enough) and wager that the Republicans take full control of the state.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Democrats control House, 218-179 (3 vacancies)
Republicans control Senate, 13-11
New Hampshire is another state that swings wildly from election to election, and I think it is highly probably that the Republicans reclaim the House and retain the Senate. Only the anticipated reelection of Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan will keep them from full control of the state.
NEW MEXICO
Democrats control House, 37-33
Democrats control Senate, 25-17
Judging by the early voting failures for Democrats in Nevada and Colorado, and the ongoing rumors of Hispanic discontent with the Democrats over immigration issues (deportations and the president’s postponement of an expected executive order on the issue), it is looking like Hispanics may be sitting out the midterms in larger numbers than usual. If this is true, it is very possible that Republicans may take the New Mexico House, where they need to net three seats for control.
NEW YORK
Democrats control Assembly, 99-40-1 (10 vacancies)
Coalition of Republicans and independent Democrats controls Senate, 34-27 (2 vacancies)
It boggles the mind that a state as Democratic as New York continues to have one chamber of its legislature controlled by the GOP, although Republican control after 2012 was only possible due to the defection of the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC), which contains four moderate Democrats, as well as Brooklyn Democrat Simcha Felder. Had all the Democrats stayed in the fold, the Democrats would have had control of the chamber, 33-30. This year, the IDC has promised to caucus with the Democrats in the next session, which would give them a bare 32-31 majority if they were to lose no seats. In a sixth-year midterm, that seems unlikely, and the bet here is that Republicans retain control of the Senate, but don’t ask me how; the Democrats should have a healthy edge here.
OREGON
Democrats control House, 34-26
Democrats control Senate, 16-14
Given the dynamics of this election, I expect the GOP to pick up at least one Senate seat, giving them at least a tie, and also to make gains in the House.
WASHINGTON
Democrats control House, 55-43
Coalition of Republicans and renegade Democrats controls Senate, 26-23
Two Democrats bolted their ranks after the last election and entered into a coalition with the Republicans to give them control of the chamber, 25-24. That majority increased to 26-23 after Republicans won a special election. It is hard to see the Democrats making gains this year, so I expect the current situation will carry over into 2015.
Click here for a chart representing my expectations of state-by-state party control in 2015-16
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