Thoughts on Politics and Prognostications

It will become immediately apparent to the readers of this website that I am a liberal Democrat. I think it is important to let you know that right away so that you can make up your own mind about my views in full possession of the facts. On this site, I will post my thoughts both on political issues (which will be largely unobjective) and on electoral prognostications (which will be as objective as humanly possible).

Although I make no secret of my political leanings, I work very hard to make objective election calls.

In 2006, I missed the ultimate results of the U.S. House of Representatives by two seats and the U.S. Senate by one seat, overestimating the Democratic pickup in the House but underestimating it in the Senate. In 2008, I missed the House by four seats and the Senate by one seat, slightly underestimating the Democratic pickup in both chambers. In 2012, I missed the House and Senate by one seat each, and in 2014, I missed the House by two seats and the Senate, once again, by one seat. In 2022, I called every Senate race correctly, the second straight time that I correctly predicted the exact number of seats each party would win in that chamber.

In 2018, I was among a handful of analysts who had Democrats picking up more than 40 seats in the House, missing by three seats, and in the Senate by two seats.

In 2010 and 2016, I didn’t do as well as I would like; in 2010, I undercalled the GOP pickup in the House by 10 seats, but overcalled it in the Senate by three seats, and in 2016, I overestimated Democratic gains in the House by eight seats and in the Senate by two seats. In 2020, I called the Senate exactly for the first time, but had my worst miss in the House, where I was off by 26 seats. While I reduced my House misses to a deviation of 14 seats in 2022, that was still not a good showing and I have recalibrated my approach since then. Nonetheless, I have correctly predicted the winning party in each chamber in every election I have projected, dating back to 2006.

Overall, I have called the House, on average, within 7.7 seats of its ultimate makeup, and the Senate within 1.2 seats. These numbers are right on par with other leading analysts, who usually predict a range rather than an exact number.

Thank you for dropping by, and I hope you will find my site a useful, thought-provoking resource on political and electoral issues.