In thinking about the upcoming presidential election, Democrats have two considerations to keep in mind. First and foremost, they must ensure that President Joe Biden is reelected. Secondly, and closely related to the first consideration, they need to think about how to deal with the extremely daunting Senate map they face in 2024.
Of the 34 Senate seats that will be on the ballot, Democrats are defending 23 (a total which includes three independents who caucus with the Democrats). Of the 11 Republican seats which are up for election in 2024, nine are in deeply red states where Democrats simply cannot win a statewide race these days, and the other two (Texas and Florida) offer Democrats odds which are well under 50%.
On the flip side, Democrats will be defending as many as 11 seats where Republicans have a legitimate chance to win, although certainly some of those states offer Democrats odds above 50%. With Democrats holding a 51-49 advantage in the Senate, they can only afford to lose one seat, but three of the seats they must defend are in states that Donald Trump won by landslide margins (8% or greater) in the last two elections (Ohio, Montana and West Virginia). Unless Democrats can somehow figure out how to hold on to two of those three seats, and all the others they currently hold–or win in either Texas or Florida–they will lose the Senate in 2024.
The reason that presidential and Senate consideration are closely related in 2024 is because ticket-splitting in presidential and Senate races is at an all-time low. Over the last two presidential elections, states have voted for the presidential candidate and Senate candidate of the same party 68 times out of 69 (a 98.6% correlation rate). The lone exception was the 2020 reelection of Republican Susan Collins in Maine, which Biden carried–and even Collins had her closest Senate race ever.
As such, President Biden has to think about campaigning not just in the states that he needs to hold on to in order to prevail in the Electoral College, but also in some states where he might not have a great chance to win. If he loses Ohio by 8% again, or Montana by 16%, Senators Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Jon Tester (D-Montana) are likely to lose. At the very least, Biden will have to significantly shrink his margin of defeat in those two states–or compete seriously in Texas and/or Florida–if Democrats are to retain control of the Senate after 2024.
FIRST-TIER STATES
As we look at the electoral map, it is very clear that there are two absolute must-win states for Biden: Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) and Michigan (15 electoral votes) are irreplaceable keystones of a Democratic Electoral College win. As it happens, both states have Senate races in 2024 as well, and Michigan’s Senate race will have no incumbent, because Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow is retiring after four terms.
BOTTOM LINE: The Democrats must do whatever is necessary and spend whatever funds are required to hold onto Pennsylvania and Michigan. They cannot afford to lose either state.
SECOND-TIER STATES
The second tier for Democrats includes the three states that Biden won by less than 1% each in 2020: Georgia (16 electoral votes), Arizona (11 electoral votes) and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), and one state he won by 2%, Nevada (6 electoral votes). If he holds Pennsylvania and Michigan, Biden only needs to retain one of Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin to be reelected. Of these three states, only Georgia has no Senate race in 2024. Democrats will have tough holds in Senate races in Arizona and Wisconsin. As such, Arizona and Wisconsin should be considered slightly higher priorities than Georgia, though Georgia cannot be ignored, because the Peach State’s demographic trends make it a far more promising state for Democrats going forward than either Arizona or Wisconsin. Biden must also ensure he hangs on to Nevada to ensure that Democrats retain that Senate seat.
BOTTOM LINE: The smart strategy here is to go all-out in Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada–sparing no expense–but to take a slightly less aggressive approach in Georgia, which Biden can afford to lose if he wins either Arizona or Wisconsin, and where Democrats are not defending a Senate seat.
“REACH” STATES
The third group of states where Biden and the Democrats must consider playing includes four states that voted twice for Donald Trump. But here, the strategy depends on whether it is considered smarter to defend incumbent Democratic senators in two states where Republicans now have a considerable advantage (Ohio, Montana), or to try to take out incumbent Republican senators in states that are not quite as red as the other two (Texas, Florida). Another factor to keep in mind is that Texas and Florida are extremely expensive states to campaign in due to their large populations and multiple big media markets. Ohio is not a cheap, low-population state, either, but Democrats can get more bang for their buck in Ohio, and certainly in sparsely populated Montana, than they can in Texas or Florida.
For Biden, it is obvious that he has a better chance to carry Florida–even with its recent rightward trend–than he has to win Ohio. He has perhaps a better chance to win Texas than he has to win Ohio, although Ohio and the Midwest tend to be a little more elastic than Texas and the South. Biden has no realistic chance whatsoever to win Montana.
There is also the fact that Texas (40 electoral votes) and Florida (30 electoral votes) pack much more of a punch in the Electoral College than Ohio (17 electoral votes) or Montana (4 electoral votes), and the two bigger states in recent elections have been more promising for Democrats than either of the two smaller states. An upset win in either Texas or Florida guarantees Biden’s reelection. For that matter, a (less-likely) win in Ohio does the same. Montana makes no difference and isn’t really winnable for Biden anyway. The only reason for Biden to campaign in Montana is to avoid hanging a 16-point anchor around Tester’s neck. So if you’re Biden, you’re probably more interested in the Texas-Florida route than the Ohio-Montana route.
But Democrats do not want to lose Tester or Brown, and as Democratic incumbents, they in some ways have a slightly easier task than the Democrats who will challenge Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Florida). Incumbents start with a thumb on the scale.
Not included in this group of “reach” states is West Virginia, where Democratic Senator Joe Manchin will face the most difficult race of his career. It would be futile for Biden to campaign in West Virginia, a state where he is guaranteed to lose by at least 30 percentage points. If Manchin can overcome a 30- to 40-point anchor at the top of the ticket, tip your hat to him. But Democrats can afford to lose Manchin’s seat as long as they win two of the four Senate seats in the “reach” states, and all four of those states are far better bets for Democrats. The Democrats should leave Manchin to fend for himself, which might actually help him in the nation’s second-reddest state.
BOTTOM LINE: Democrats don’t need any of these four “reach” states to keep the presidency, but they do need to win two of these four Senate seats to keep the Senate. They have no chance to win any of them if Biden doesn’t do decently in those states. The best bet is to campaign in all four and hope Democrats can win two of those Senate seats.
“DEFENSE” STATES
Finally, Biden and the Democrats should spend some money and resources in three states where Biden is likely to win, but all of which remain close enough that they could go haywire under the right circumstances. These three states are Virginia (11 electoral votes), Minnesota (10 electoral votes), and Maine (4 electoral votes).
BOTTOM LINE: Democrats are likely to win both the presidential races and Senate races in all three of these states, but they can’t take any chances and must make sure to nail them all down.
SUMMARY
For Joe Biden to win reelection and give his party the best chance at retaining its slim advantage in the Senate in 2024, he must campaign in, and dedicate significant resources to, exactly 13 states, and only those 13 states. There is no utility whatsoever in campaigning in any of the other 37 states, or the District of Columbia, which–with the exception of North Carolina–are all safe for one party or the other.
With North Carolina unnecessary to an Electoral College majority for Biden, and the Tar Heel State having no Senate races on the ballot in 2024, there is no strategic reason to vigorously contest it when the party has more pressing priorities. (Although a similar case can be made about Georgia, which also has no Senate races on the ballot in 2024, the fact remains that Georgia flipped blue in 2020 and North Carolina did not. As such, Georgia could be a backup for Biden in the event that he loses both Arizona and Wisconsin. Strategically, Democrats would do well to leave North Carolina alone in 2024 and revisit it in 2026 and 2028, when it has Senate races on the ballot.)
There will be some talk of trying to challenge Senator Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) or flip an open Republican seat in Indiana, but such talk should be ignored. Democrats will have their hands full in the 13 states where they really need to compete, and spending money and resources in deeply red states like Missouri and Indiana, where Democrats are simply not going to win or even come close, would be foolish, wasteful, and bad strategy. Any money spent in any of these 37 states is money that can’t be spent where control of the White House and the Senate will be decided. Democrats need to keep their eyes on the prize and not go off on wild goose chases in impossible states.
Now that Democrats are certain to retain control of the U.S. Senate for the next two year, the Georgia runoff on December 6 between incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker is not going to be the titanic struggle for control of the chamber that it might have been had Nevada flipped red.
I now rate the Georgia runoff Likely Democratic for several reasons.
I have no doubt that a significant number of Republican voters understand that Walker shouldn’t be let within a country mile of the United States Senate, but held their noses and voted for him anyway in order to get their party control of the chamber. That motivation is no longer there, because Democrats have clinched control of the Senate. I expect some portion of these voters to stay home, with a handful perhaps even voting for Warnock.
A Libertarian candidate dropped out and endorsed Warnock, but not in time to get his name off the ballot. He ended up pulling about 2% of the vote. Probably many or most of these voters won’t even vote, but of those who do, I expect many will heed their candidate’s endorsement and vote for Warnock.
Democrats, unlike Republicans, still have good reasons to show up. So much of what Democratic rank-and-file voters wanted done the last two years was flummoxed by Senators Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Arizona) having outsized power in a 50-50 Senate. If Democrats get to 51 seats, they only have to hold one of those two fickle votes, and Manchin has been much more willing to play ball with his Democratic counterparts, and cut deals, than Sinema has.
While Georgia is still a closely divided state, under the circumstances, I expect Warnock not just to win, but possibly to win by perhaps four or five points.
As of Sunday morning, the New York Times elections site—which is possibly the best one available—shows 21 U.S. House seats still uncalled, although one of them is a Democrat-vs.-Democrat race in California, so that seat is automatically a Democratic hold. Among the 20 other races, Democrats would need to win 14 to hold the majority, while Republicans only need seven. Here I’m going to analyze how those 20 seats break down, from east to west.
Maine 2—Democrat Jared Golden leads Republican Bruce Poliquin by 3% before ranked-choice voting kicks in. Golden’s in good shape. LIKELY D.
New York 22—Republican Brandon Williams leads by about 2% in a Republican-leaning district. LIKELY R.
Colorado 3—Republican Lauren Boebert holds a narrow lead, but most signs indicate that she will squeak this one out. LEANS R.
Colorado 8—It is a bit surprising that this race has not been called for Democrat Yadira Caraveo, whose Republican opponent, Barbara Kirkmeyer, conceded days ago. The margin is only 0.7% right now, but one tends to think that the person who conceded had a good reason to do it. LIKELY D.
Arizona 1—Democrat Jevin Hodge leads incumbent Republican David Schweikert by 0.8%, but there are a lot of votes (14%) still to be counted. It is a close district, so it is hard to say who will prevail here. My guess is that Schweikert ekes it out. LEANS R.
Arizona 6—Republican Juan Ciscomani leads Democrat Kirsten Engel by 0.4% with 13% of the vote still out. I expect Ciscomani hangs on. LEANS R.
Oregon 5—With Republican Lori Chavez-De Remer leading Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner by 2. It’s clear that a bitter Democratic primary, in which McLeod-Skinner ousted incumbent Kurt Schrader, left a mark. My guess is that the Republican holds on. Democrats should take a lesson from what happens when you primary a centrist Democrat in a centrist district. LEANS R.
Oregon 6—Democrat Andrea Salinas leads Republican Mike Erickson by 2%. It’s a slightly blue-leaning district, so I expect Salinas wins. LIKELY D.
California 3—Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley leads Democratic challenger Kermit Jones by about 6%. Late counts in California typically favor Democrats, but Jones probably has too far to go to get there. LEANS R.
California 6—I don’t know why this one hasn’t been called yet. Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera has a 12% lead over Republican Tamika Hamilton, in a Democratic-leaning district. LIKELY D.
California 9—Another race that probably should have been called by now. Democratic incumbent Josh Harder leads by 12% over Republican Tom Patti. LIKELY D.
California 13—Republican John Duarte has a 0.2% lead over Democrat Adam Gray in this open seat. The late count, I expect, will likely favor Gray. LEANS D.
California 21—Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa leads Republican Michael Maher by 10%. LIKELY D.
California 22—Republican incumbent David Valadao has a 6% lead over Democrat Rudy Salas. This is a heavily Democratic district, but Valadao’s personal brand has helped him overcome his district’s partisan lean many times. The margin will tighten, but I expect Valadao will hold on. LEANS R.
California 27—Republican incumbent Mike Garcia holds a 10% lead over Democrat Christy Smith in this Democratic-leaning district. The margin will tighten, but it’s hard to imagine Garcia losing a 10-point lead. It’s beginning to look like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was right to pull the plug on this race. LEANS R.
California 41—Longtime Republican incumbent Ken Calvert leads Democrat Will Rollins by about a point and a half. This one could be pretty tight up to the end. It’s one of California’s more Republican districts, but that’s not saying much. With the late count usually favoring Democrats, I think Rollins pulls it out. LEANS D.
California 45—Incumbent Republican Michelle Steel leads Democrat Jay Chen by 8%. She probably holds on. LEANS R.
California 47—Incumbent Democrat Katie Porter’s district got a lot more Republican this cycle, but she leads her GOP opponent, Scott Baugh, by 2%, and I expect she holds on. LEANS D.
California 49—Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin leads Republican Bryan Maryott by 4% and should win. LIKELY D.
Alaska At-Large—Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola is in great shape, with 47% of the vote before ranked choice takes effect, and some number of Republicans certain to have named her as their second choice. LIKELY D.
In all, of the 20 uncalled races, I expect Democrats to win 11 and Republicans to win nine. That would give Republicans a scant 220-215 majority with a net gain of seven seats. As compared to the average loss for a president’s party in a midterm election (34-35 seats), this is clearly a major underperformance by the Republican Party, and it puts Democrats in a strong position to retake the House in 2024 if President Biden does well in his reelection campaign.
That said, if just three of those expected Republican seats end up going Democratic (and at least two of them are pretty dicey calls at this point), then Democrats would hold the House—a remarkable result if it happens.
I learned in 2010 never to bet against Nevada political guru Jon Ralston when it came to picking winners in Nevada. Ralston’s calculations show that embattled Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is likely to hold off a challenge by Republican Adam Laxalt. As such, I am changing my rating in that race from Leans R (flip) to Leans D.
The ratings change, if my projections are correct, would indicate Democrats will hold the Senate by taking a 50-49 advantage into any runoff that might happen in Georgia. A 50-50 tie would keep Democrats in charge due to the tie breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris.
I still project a 23-seat pickup in the House by the GOP, for a 236-199 advantage.
Heading into the final two days before the 2022 midterm elections, it is clear to me that the Republican Party has the momentum and this will essentially be a normal midterm, with one caveat: It appears that Democratic turnout will be higher than could normally be expected in a midterm with a Democratic president, which will blunt Republican gains somewhat and possibly enable them to preserve their tenuous 50-50 hold on the U.S. Senate.
But even though Republicans appear unlikely to get the 34 or 35 seats the “out” party could expect to pick up in an average midterm election, I still expect almost every U.S. House seat Joe Biden won by less than 8% in 2020 to flip to the GOP. As such, I expect Republicans to pick up 23 U.S. House seats and take the majority by a 236-199 margin.
I didn’t just pick this number out of a hat, and when I made my first projections in the spring, it was higher. At that time, I expected Republicans to flip virtually every district Biden won by less than 12%, which I based on Democratic underperformance, relative to 2017, in the governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey last year.
After the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, I noted that Democratic over performance in special elections from that point was significant enough that I changed my projection to Democrats losing virtually every Biden +3 seat. But with momentum clearly turning back to the Republicans in the last month or two, I expect to end up somewhere in the middle between those two extremes. With a couple of exceptions, I am projecting Republicans to win any Biden House seat of +8 or less. I expect with close to 100% certainty that Republicans will control a majority of the House in January 2023.
The Senate, I feel less confident about. On one hand, Republicans have hurt themselves badly by picking a number of really bad candidates. On the other hand, the only five Senate races that appear to be in doubt at this point are four seats currently held by Democrats and only one seat currently held by a Republican. Democrats would need to win four of those five seats just to stay at 50-50. In a year in which I expect Republicans to gain, it is hard to imagine that Republicans would win only one of these five super-competitive seats. Had the GOP chosen better candidates in Pennsylvania, Georgia and New Hampshire, I’d be projecting the GOP to pick up at least two seats and most likely three. And those dynamics might still hold, possibly propelling two or three of those really awful Republican candidates into the Senate. Right now, I’m calling it 50-49 GOP with Georgia going to a runoff, but it’s far likelier that it might be 51 or 52 seats for the Republicans than it is that Democrats will do any better than 50-50. In short, the dynamics tell me to expect the Republicans to get 51 Senate seats, but it’s just hard for me to see where they get that 51st seat.
On average, my projections since 2006 have been within seven seats in the House and 1.375 seats in the Senate. Based on my historical error rate, one could expect a Republican House majority of anywhere from 229-206 to 243-192, and a Senate that contains anything from a 52-48 Democratic edge to a 52-48 Republican edge.
I also make projections at the state level, and those are all available in the attached chart.
Recent Comments