The final Wide World of Politics midterm election projections for the U.S. House, U.S. Senate and governors’ races, as well as an overview of the state legislative races, will be published at 3 p.m. Eastern Standard Time/Noon Pacific Time on Sunday, November 2, 2014.
I had promised initially to publish my final projections today, but some of these races are so close that I want to review all of this weekend’s final polls before making calls on them. Of special interest, as has been the case for weeks, are the final numbers in the U.S. Senate races in Colorado and Iowa, which I expect will determine control of the Senate.
I feel more unsure about these elections than any of the other three election cycles I have picked since 2006. Republican gains are inevitable, but how many? The last time we had an election in which Republican gains obviously were going to occur, I underestimated their gains in the House by a considerable number (10), but overestimated their gains in the Senate by a considerable number as well (3). It was my worst cycle to date. I am taking as much care as I can to avoid being off by those numbers this time.
Please come back tomorrow to see my final projections.